IN the first of a new series Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) pinpoints his best spread bet of the Premier League action this Saturday.
Watford v Leicester | Saturday 15:00
In an attempt to add a few more strings to the WeLoveBetting bow I've been asked to do a regular spread betting article every Saturday. This is the first attempt and I'm sticking with the Premier League. It's Week 1, so let's keep this simple – for all our sakes.
Watford host Leicester on Saturday with both sides a bit bruised from their last match before the much-maligned international break. I'm looking to take a goals angle in this match so I'll buying goals at 2.65 with Spreadex.
Watford took a tonking at Liverpool, going down 6-1 in a match that highlighted just how fluent and fantastic Jurgen Klopp's side It also exposed just how erratic Watford can be in defence.
In many ways Leicester's result was more damaging despite losing just 2-1. Yeah, the nastiness of their defeat stemmed from the fact it came at home against a fairly average Premier League side.
Break up of the fortress
Fortress is one of the most overused words in football but there was a real sense that that words was an accurate description of the King Power when it came to how proficient Leicetser were in between it's walls.
They suffered just one defeat there throughout the whole of last season's stunning league campaign but perhaps more crucially kicked off this campaign in fine fettle there too.
Yes, while the water was leaking out from their away performances, their King Power remained solid. As well as beating FC Porto and FC Copenhagen in the Champions League there they also went unbeaten in their opening five Premier League games there too this season.
That was why the home loss to West Brom two weeks ago proved a real surprise and triggered alarm bells around the club. The Foxes now lie 14th, just two points off the relegation zone.
Leicester's away form has of course been appalling this season with four league losses out of five. Heavy defeats have come against Liverpool, Manchester United (both 4-1) and Chelsea (3-0) and as they can tell their defence has left real room for improvement.
Watford have also been associated with goal-laden matches this season (although not to the same extent) and saw their opening five games appease Both Teams To Score punters.
The goals have gone quieter since then but leaking six in their last match hardly bodes well for the Hornets. Overall, six of their 11 matches this season have gone Over 2.5 Goals.
I've just got a feeling Leicester may be a tad more aggressive here on Saturday as they bid to get their domestic season back on track and with five of Watford's six home games this season going Over 2.5 they might find a great match here on Saturday.
Time to buy
So as mentioned above, my bet is to buy goals at 2.65 in this match. I'll place a £10 stake on this. Essentially, if there three or more goals in this match I win. Two or fewer and I lose.
If no goals are scored at Watford I'll be 2.65 below the buy point. This means I'll lose £10 x 2.65 = £26.50. If exactly one is scored I'll be 1.65 below the spread and will lose £16.50 (£10 x 1.65) and if exactly two are scored I'll make a small £6.50 loss (£10 x 0.65).
On the plus side, if three are scored I'll be in profit by £3.50 (£10 x 0.35 above the buy point), four and I'm up £13.50 (£10 x 1.35) and so on. Got it? If not, fire questions across to email@example.com or grab us on Twitter.
Watford v Leicester – Buy Goals at 2.65 (Spreadex)