Stats Value Bets | 26th May 2015


CAN the stats lead us to big value winning bets? As our new feature continues, we highlight the best value opportunities based purely on the stats and trends available.

Perugia v Pescara | Tuesday 17.30

There’s slim pickings on Tuesday but the Serie A promotion play-off between Perugia and Pescara stands out for a slice of stats value. Both Teams To Score has been chalked up as a 19/20 chance with William Hill but going on the two teams’ regular league campaigns in Serie B, we should be expecting something a little closer to 8/13.

Perugia have been through the mill over the past 15 years, blighted by financial problems and off-field wrangling but after winning promotion to the second tier last season, the Grifoni are hoping to make their way back to the top table of Italian football over the course of the next few weeks.

Andrea Camplone’s men host Pescara in the first leg of their preliminary play-off with Vicenza waiting in the semi-final wings. The home side head into this clash on the back of an outstanding return of W10-D6-L1 since February with a haul of 10 clean sheets from those 17 fixtures.

But look a little closer and we can see the Both Teams To Score bet proved successful in 10/21 (48%) of their games at their Stadio Renato Curi base with 7/11 proving profitable for BTTS backers when taking on teams in 12th and above.

Visitors Pescara are looking to return to Serie A after a brief stay in 2012/13 finished a place and five points behind their hosts in the ladder. An end of season run of W4-D3-L3 stalled their campaign but the Dolphins finished top of the scoring standings with 69 goals plundered across their 42 games.

Marco Baroni’s troops only failed to notch in three of their 21 away days and so it’s no surprise to see Biancazzurri matches returning a whopping 16/21 (76%) of Both Teams To Score winners on the road including 10/11 when taking on top-12 teams on their travels.

Should we put the two teams’ home/away BTTS records together we’re right to expect a 62% chance of a repeat on Tuesday evening and in betting terms that equates to an 8/13 play. William Hill’s offering of 19/20 should then hold plenty of appeal for value hunters.

Best Bets

Perugia v Pescara – Both Teams To Score (19/20 William Hill)

About Author

The big cheese at WLB. After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production before setting WeLoveBetting up soon after the 2014 World Cup. With a huge passion for stats, analytics, the EFL and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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