Stats Value Bets | 20th July 2015


LOOKING for a dollop of value on Monday? Head to the Swedish Allsvenskan!

Djurgarden v Atvidaberg | Monday 18.00

So Bargain Hunt and Homes Under The Hammer are being prioritised on BBC television, starving us off a thrilling final day at The Open until 2pm. What to do to pass the time? Look for a bit of value in today’s football? Sure.

The Swedish season is now 16 games young and trends are starting to be seen, making it a much easier exercise when hunting out a decent stats bet. IFK Gothenburg head the Allsvenskan but a victory for 2005 champions Djurgarden will see the Stockholm club move into second place and close the gap on the leaders to three points.

Per Olsson’s men have enjoyed a solid W8-D5-L2 start to the campaign and are now unbeaten in 12 outings – no wonder they’re as short as 2/7 (BetVictor) to scoop maximum points. On the artificial surface of their Tele2 Arena, the Blue Stripes have W4-D2-L1 but it’s their penchant for Both Teams To Score winners that sticks out.

Djurgarden have seen the net bulge for both teams in 5/7 (71%) of their league fixtures in the capital, keeping only two clean sheets. It’s an angle that tallies nicely with struggling Atvidaberg’s toils at the bottom of the standings.

The smallest town to ever claim a Swedish title are feeling the heat (W1-D4-L10) but three draws in their most recent four outings have stopped the rot. But Roar Hansen’s charges have been awful on the road so far in 2015, losing all seven of their travelling games.

However, we’re not interested in the home win. We’re chasing a BTTS winner and despite their pointless road return, Atvidaberg have netted in four of those seven defeats to give us a 57% success rate when playing away.

Put the two teams successful Both Teams To Score rates together (71% + 57%) should give us an expectation of around 64% for a repeat on Monday night. If we turn that percentage into equivalent odds and we’d be looking at a 4/7 shot. Thanks to Betway, we can back BTTS at a hunky 6/5.

For those a little more adventurous but still keen to stay on the Both Teams To Score theme, 888 Sport are offering 23/10 on a Djurgarden win and Both Teams To Score.

Best Bets

Djurgarden v Atvidaberg – Both Teams To Score (6/5 Betway)

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About Author

The big cheese at WLB. After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production before setting WeLoveBetting up soon after the 2014 World Cup. With a huge passion for stats, analytics, the EFL and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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