STATS expert Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Sunday's Bundesliga action, pinpointing the value bets according to the numbers.
Koln v Hoffenheim | Sunday 5th November 2017, 14:30 | BT Sport
The betting market implies Koln have a 35% chance of beating Hoffenheim on Sunday with the visitors chalked up as 40% favourites and the draw rated at a 27% chance.
With the market making the hosts slight underdogs, Sunday is a good time to have them onside.
The Billy Goats 35% implied success rate situates them within the home probability range of 25% and 37% – 37% of host teams situated within the parameters have landed the spoils, equating to odds of 2.70 (17/10).
Meanwhile, Hoffenheim’s 40% implied success rate situates them within the away probability range of 36% and 50%. Subsequently, travelling teams within that parameter have lost 37% of games, again equating to odds of 2.70 (17/10) for hosts clubs.
Green shoots for Koln?
Koln boss Peter Stöger won’t be pleased with his team’s start to the season, the hosts have picked up only two points from a possible 30 and sit rock-bottom of the Bundesliga. But there have green shoots of late with the Billy Goats suffering one defeat in four across all competitions, scoring nine goals and conceding five.
Stöger’s side also rank in the top-10 for both shot ratio and shots on-target ratio for home Bundesliga sides. Therefore, they look good value at 19/10 (Sportingbet) to pick up maximum points on Sunday.
After a good start (W4-D2-L0), Hoffenheim have been struggling of late. Julian Nagelsmann’s men have bagged one point from their last four fixtures and since they overcame Schalke in matchday six, they’ve won once in eight outings across all competitions.
Considering Hoffe were away in Istanbul on Europa League duty on Thursday night, their rocky recent run and Koln’s improvements, it’s a good time to be on the Billy Goats.
Koln v Hoffenheim – Koln to win (19/10 Sportingbet)