STATS expert Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Saturday's Bundesliga action, pinpointing the value bets according to the numbers.
Hertha Berlin v Schalke | Saturday 14th October 2017, 14:30
Analysing the market odds available for Hertha Berlin’s match with Schalke, the bookmakers have given the hosts an implied probability of 38.4% to win the game with the draw 30% and Schalke a 33.5% chance.
With the market making the hosts slight favourites, we will be looking to have them onside Pal Dardai’s home side’s implied probability situates them within the home implied probability range of 36% and 50% – 43% of matches situated within this range have seen resulted in triumphs for the hosts, equating to odds just over 13/10.
Schalke’s implied probability of 33.5% situates the Royal Blues within the away probability range of 25% and 36%. Subsequently, travelling teams within that range have lost in 43% of games equating to the same odds of just over 13/10.
Hertha have started this campaign with W2-D3-L2, picking up nine points but subsequently eight of these points have been collected at their Olympiastadion base where they have a great record of W14-D3-L4 from their last 21 games.
The capital club are averaging 1.66 goals per-game and conceding 1.09 in Berlin. Against Saturday’s opponents, the hosts boast an expected goals of 1.54.
Dominco Tedesco’s visitors have started the season with W3-D1-L3 and currently sit one place above Hertha. But the Royal Blues have only picked up one win in their first three away from the Veltins Arena and over the last 20 road trips have W4-D5-L11.
Schalke have conceded an average of 1.45 goals per-game and scoring only 0.90. Their expected goals for Saturday stand at just 0.84.
So with a goal supremacy of 0.70 in favour of Hertha, we’ll back the Berlin boys to do the business at generous 13/8 quotes from Unibet.
Mainz v Hamburg | Saturday 14th October 2017, 14:30
Mainz welcome Hamburg to the Opel Arena on Saturday and I think we will see plenty of goals at both ends.
Mainz are always entertaining on home soil, failing to score in only 4 of their last 21 here and recording just five clean sheets in the same sample. The average goal tally stands at 3.20 goals per-game in those 21 matches.
This season Sandro Schwarz’s men rank highly in the shot stats as hosts – seventh in total shot ratio and fifth in shots on-target ratio, whilst averaging 2.75 goals per-game.
Hamburg have struggled on the road this term, scoring in just one of their three fixtures. But their underlying shot stats show signs they will start to find the net soon enough.
Ranking 11th for total shot ratio and 12th for shots on-target ratio, averaging 3.00 total goals per-game, the Dinosaur’s encounters have seen plenty of goalmouth action.
If we look in to recent results when these two teams have faced each other at the Opel Arena, four from the last 5 have seen Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score with an average of 3.00 goals per-game.
With both teams’ games full of goals and high shot ratings, we should see an open and entertaining game. Therefore, I’ll back Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score at 6/4 (Coral).