THE always-excellent Harley Dale (@Harleeyy) has taken a deep dive into Sunday's showdown between Southampton and Manchester United in the Premier League.
Southampton vs Manchester United | Sunday 29th November 2020, 14:00 | Sky Sports
Matchweek 10 sees Southampton host Manchester United in what should be a competitive affair.
Saints come into this clash on the back of a 1-1 draw against a solid Wolves side on Monday night where they had to work hard to get anything out of the game. Although Ralph Hassenhuttl will surely be disappointed his side didn’t claim the three points given that they took a 1-0 lead, it now means Southampton are unbeaten in their last seven league matches – sitting nicely in fifth.
Man Utd come into this on the back of a midweek UCL win against Turkish side Istanbul Basaksehir and are currently on a three-game winning streak in all competitions. It’s not been smooth sailing for the Red Devil’ this season however, which is reflected by their league position as they sit in a mediocre 11th.
Southampton will continue to be without star-man Danny Ings who is still out through injury. Despite the unavailability of the Englishman, the Saints have picked up seven points from a possible nine with Theo Walcott stepping up to the plate in his absence.
The Saints morale will inevitably be high coming into this match given their good form thus far and will plan to nullify the threat that Ole’s men possess through their distinct style of play.
It has been highlighted by myself in the past of the way Hassenhuttl likes to get his team playing: aggressive, fiery, pressuring the opponent at virtually every opportunity and making quick transitions from defence to attack. The Austrian has set a foundation at the club and is the reason why his side are high up the table.
A squad like United’s can beat most teams on their day, as we’ve seen against the likes of PSG recently and Man City last season. However, they’ll need to be clinical and put in a shift if they want to take home the points on Sunday as Saints have only conceded 9.9 shots on average, the fourth lowest in the league.
The lack of shots Southampton concede is a testament to the way they pressure their opponent and give them no space to breathe – in fact they have made the third-most successful pressures so far this season, behind Brighton and Leeds.
Bet365 have Man United’s shot line set at 13.5 which I feel is too generous. Southampton have conceded 14 shots or more in just two of their last 17 home matches, with both exceptions against Man City and Newcastle where they had 10 men from the 28th minute.
Given this, and Southampton’s good form, I’m more than happy to take Man United Under 13.5 Shots at 10/11 on Bet365.
Another bet I like which is similar to the one above is Rashford Under 2.5 shots at 5/4. Although he’s one of the star men for the Red Devils on and off the pitch, I don’t think he’ll have many opportunities at goal given the reasoning that’s been stated above.
Rashford had managed three or more shots in just three of his eight games this season and in 43% of league matches since the start of last season. Therefore 5/4 looks appealing and represents value.
Jon Moss is the man in the middle for this clash, who ranked seventh out of a possible 17 last season for yellow cards per-game and is currently averaging shy of 4 per-game.
There will be many culprits on the pitch who are susceptible of picking up a card so the game should be a fiery and competitive one. Both teams have picked up a card in 19 of Man Utd's 22 away matches since last season so I’m happy to throw both teams to pick up a card in a Bet Builder, alongside Under 4 Goals which has landed in 15 of the last 18 home matches for Saints.
If you combine this you’ll get a tasty 11/10 shot, which I feel is a nice price.
Best Bets
Southampton vs Manchester United – Manchester United Under 13.5 Shots (10/11 Bet365)
Southampton vs Manchester United – Marcus Rashford Under 2.5 Shots (5/4 Bet365)
Southampton vs Manchester United – Both Teams Over 0 Cards and Under 4 Goals (11/10 Bet365)
