Southampton vs Burnley | Sunday 4th April 2021, 12:00 | Sky Sports
The international break is finally over and, with a day of fantastic Premier League football already under our belts, we head into an action-packed Super Sunday – which is opened by Burnley’s visit to the St. Mary’s Stadium to take on Southampton from midday.
I’ll be honest it was nice to take a few weeks away from betting during that fortnight, though I couldn’t resist having a nibble on this from Lewis Jones. James Ward-Prowse only strengthened his claim to a place in Southgate’s Euros squad with his performances in the World Cup qualifiers, and that price was absolutely outrageous.
A break from the rigorous league calendar couldn’t have come at a better time for Ralph Hassenhüttl’s Southampton side, who haven’t won a home league game since beating Liverpool at St. Mary’s over three months ago. In fact, their only league win in the 12 matches since that victory was over bottom of the table Sheffield United; whilst 10 of them ended in defeat.
It hasn’t been *all* bad for the Saints though, who dispatched of south coast rivals Bournemouth in the FA Cup Quarter-Finals to set up a date at Wembley with Leicester City later this month. They’ve actually won all four of their cup games in 2021 without conceding a single goal, including games against Arsenal and Wolves, so will be hoping to channel that energy into propelling themselves out of the precarious position they find themselves in.
They currently sit 14th in the Premier League table, just seven points clear of the relegation zone. Whilst that buffer is nice, they’ll definitely be looking over their shoulder if they continue their recent freefall.
In fact, ‘Objects In The Rear View Mirror May Appear Closer Than They Are’ would be pertinent for today’s opponents, with Burnley as close to their hosts as they possibly can be. The two sides are separated only by ‘goals scored’, sitting on the exact same points and goal difference, but they feel like teams going in opposite directions.
The Clarets’ recent uptick in form will have settled the nerves around Turf Moor more than they’d probably admit, with one loss in their last eight games lifting them to their highest position of the season so far, 15th.
It’s difficult to judge what that means for this game, with five of those eight matches being played at home (and all ending in draws) – with two wins and one loss on the road. Sean Dyche’s side have actually won three of their last five on the road so it was a bit of a shock to see they’re such big outsiders (3/1), especially given their recent success in this fixture.
Of the last seven Premier League meetings between these two sides; the hosts have won just once, with three draws and three wins for Burnley.
With that in mind, I’ll be taking The Draw at 12/5 with SkyBet. These two are pretty evenly matched realistically, and I don’t confident enough in the referee to go anywhere near cards.
Southampton vs Burnley – Draw (12/5 SkyBet)