ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Sheffield United entertain Aston Villa in the Premier League on Wednesday.
Sheffield United vs Aston Villa | Wednesday 3rd March 2021, 18:00 | BT Sport
Aston Villa travel to Sheffield United looking to continue their fine away form in the Premier League. This match sees the worst attack in the division lock horns with the second-best away defence.
The Blades’ demise has ultimately been down to their lack of creativity and attacking output. Sitting on just 15 goals in 26 games, Chris Wilder’s men look destined for the drop.
They face a revitalised Aston Villa this season who have kept clean sheets in 13/24 matches, with the addition of Emi Martinez proving well worth the money. Their rock-solid defence continues away from home, with 8/13 clean sheets when on the road.
Eleven of Villa’s 12 wins this season have been to nil. That is a crazy achievement and testament to both the recruitment and coaching team. Excluding Big Six teams, only Burnley and West Ham have scored at home to Villa.
Back Aston Villa to win by one goal at 11/4 with Paddy Power
I fancy Villa to win in a tight game at Brammall Lane. They’ve seen the 1-0 score line land in four of their away games already but to get more onside I’ll take Aston Villa to win by one goal in the ‘Winning Margin’ market.
Fourteen of the Blades’ 21 losses have come by the single goal, losing 1-0 nine times, and 2-1 four times. Aston Villa don’t look like conceding a goal of late, but a Blades goal wouldn’t surprise me. Before facing Liverpool, they notched in four successive home games.
I’ll also take a stats-based play which is good on the stats and the price is a value one.
Back Sheffield United first team carded at 10/11 with William Hill
- Sheffield United have been the first team booked in 15/26 = 58%
- Aston Villa’s opponents have been the first team booked in 18/24 = 75%
- Aston Villa’s opponents have been the first team booked in 10/13 Villa away games = 77%
- Sheffield United have picked up the most cards this season (48Y 2R)
- Referee Rob Jones has given Sheffield United 10 yellows in his last 5 games refereeing them, dating back to 2018/19.
By simply playing the averages here, the price of 10/11 at William Hill for Sheffield United to be carded first imply a 52% chance of winning.
However, with Villa’s opponents landing this bet in 75% of games this season, and Blades winning this in 58%, the correct odds look to be around 1/2 here, so it appears we’ve got a real value bet.
I fancy John Lundstram to be carded at 5/1 with William Hill but given the above data and the fact that cards may not flow, the value is in the first player to be carded market.
Without Jack Grealish, Villa will be fouled less often but even two Leeds centre midfielders were carded last weekend. This bet is a longshot but is as short as 9/1 elsewhere.
Back John Lundstram to be the first player carded at 18/1 with William Hill.
- 18 of Sheffield United’s 50 cards have been shown to one of their central midfielders (36%).
- Lundstram leads their ill-discipline chart with 6Y and 1R.
- Lundstram was carded in the reverse fixture (10th minute).
- The Liverpudlian has been booked in his last two games versus Villa.
- An opposition centre-mid has been booked in 14/24 Aston Villa games.
- 19 central midfielders have been booked in these 24 games.
Best Bets
Sheffield United vs Aston Villa – Aston Villa to win by one goal (11/4 Betfair)
Sheffield United vs Aston Villa – Sheffield United first team carded (10/11 William Hill)
Sheffield United vs Aston Villa – John Lundstram first player carded (18/1 William Hill)
