DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his favourite fancies from Tuesday night's tussle between Sheffield United and Manchester City.
Sheffield United v Manchester City | Tuesday 21st January 2020, 19:30 | BT Sport
The beauty of football is that the scoreline very rarely reflects the pattern of play and the volume of chances each side have created. Unfortunately, from a betting perspective it does mean that sometimes you don’t get what you deserve (although there are many occasions that you get more than you do!) and I feel that was the case with my Manchester City selection at the weekend.
I backed The Citizens to win and Under 3.5 goals to be scored, with a saver on a 3-1 scoreline against Crystal Palace. Sadly City conceded a 90th minute own goal to make said bet a loser, as despite dominating the stats (the won the xG battle 2.46-0.59 for example), they came away with a 2-2 draw.
Still, I am going to back City once again here, but be a little more conservative and back an away victory and Under 4.5 Goals to be scored at 5/6 (Coral).
In truth, I feel that is a little conservative as struggle to see many goals in this match. Sheffield United have conceded just 22 goals in their 23 games this season and have only conceded three goals in a game once – a 3-3 draw with Manchester United.
The Blades lost 1-0 at home to Liverpool and lost by 2-0 scorelines against both Liverpool and City on their travels.
I have written previously about City’s love of a 3-1 victory (10 of last 61 league games) and this covers us for such an eventuality even if I – and the market – believe that 2-0 and 2-1 are more likely results on this occasion.
City have won on 15 occasions in the league this term, and this bet has obliged in 11 of those. The 4/9 on them in the outright market is a little short, but 5/6 on a victory and Under 4.5 Goals makes plenty of appeal. I shall be backing 2-0 and 2-1 to Pep’s men myself, but will also be on this bet.
Sheffield United v Manchester City – Manchester City to win and Under 4.5 Goals (5/6 Coral)