Serie A Best Bets: Old Lady vulnerable on trip to Sardinia?


HARLEY DALE (@HarIeeyy) is here to share his research and best bets ahead of Wednesday night's late Serie A kick-offs. 

Cagliari vs Juventus | Wednesday 29th July 2020, 20:45 | Premier Sports

After Juventus' 2-0 home win to Sampdoria at the weekend, the Old Lady secured the Serie A title for an incredible ninth time in a row. Many people, including myself, thought Atalanta or Lazio may have taken it to the wire – but once again Juve show their class and consistency when it really matters.

Therefore, MD37 sees Juve travel to the Sardegna to face Cagliari in a game that. in all honesty, has no real purpose. Maurizio Sarri and his men will now have their eyes set on the crucial Champions League second leg against Lyon, hoping that their domestic success over the years can transition into European glory.

Although Cagliari also have nothing to play for, they will be aware of the opportunity they can capitalise on when facing a Juve side who’ll inevitably have their minds set elsewhere. To add to this, the away side will be without some key starters such as Mathias De Ligt and Paulo Dybala.

Historically speaking, Juventus tend to underperform when there’s no incentive to seek a result – winning just one of their final seven matches last season. Compare that to pre-winning the title and the club won 27 of their first 31 matches – an incredible contrast and a perfect example of the psychological aspect in sport!

For a Juve team that have won the league relatively comfortably once again, the club have won just 10 of their 18 away matches (55%) with half of those coming against the bottom six – picking up fewer points on the road than Atalanta and Inter.

With all this said, Cagliari Double Chance at 13/8 (SkyBet) looks like great value against an unmotivated Juventus side.

Torino vs Roma | Wednesday 29th July 2020, 20:45 | Premier Sports

With the season coming to it’s conclusion and most teams having nothing to play for, Roma are one of the few exceptions as they continue to battle for a place in the Europa League against Milan and Napoli – knowing that a win at Torino will cement their European place next season.

Roma couldn’t have timed their great form any better, as they come into this match unbeaten in their last six, winning five of those in the process – with the one exception being a respectable 2-2 draw against second-placed Inter. It’s fair to say that Paulo Fonseca and his men deserve some credibility for churning out positive results whilst under pressure from other teams.

Conversely, Torino come into this clash on the back of a disappointing 1-1 draw against already-relegated SPAL, epitomising their whole season as they sit in a disheartening 16th. With Toro securing their place in Serie A next season, it feels like an uphill task if they want to turnaround their poor run of results since the restart – winning just three of the 11 matches including two of their past nine.

With Roma predicted to pile on the pressure in this match in an attempt to solidify their continental qualification, it is expected that Torino and their defenders will be kept busy. One player that springs to mind is Gleison Bremer, who operates on the left of a back three.

Averaging the second-most tackles for his side with 2.3 per-game, it is evident that the centre back isn’t shy of a challenge or two. Additionally, it is likely the Brazilian will be up against Edin Dzeko and Carles Perez so he will certainly have his work cut out for the 90 minutes. The defender has made 2+ tackles in six of his last seven matches and seven of his 10 home matches when playing 60+ minutes.

With Torino’s poor form and Roma chasing that crucial European place, I expect the Giallorossi to grind out the three points one way or another. Roma to win and Bremer 2+ tackles at 13/10 (Ladbrokes) is my preferred play.

Best Bets

Cagliari vs Juventus – Cagliari Double Chance (13/8 SkyBet)

Torino vs Roma – Roma to win and Gleison Bremer 2+ tackles (13/10 Ladbrokes)

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