Serie A Best Bets: Final day thrillers forecast for Sunday


THE SERIE A season comes to a close on Sunday and Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB ) is on-hand to preview his favourite fancies from the final day of action.

The most exhilarating of Serie A season's comes to a close as the final five games brings the curtain down on a campaign full of entertainment. Ahead of this weekend’s fixtures the prior 370 matches have seen 1122 goals scored at an average of 3.03 per-game, with both teams scoring in 229 (62%) and just 21 goalless draws (6%).

The title has been won as Juventus claimed their ninth successive Scudetto, the Golden Boot was claimed by Ciro Immobile, and with Spal and Brescia bound for Serie B next season it just leaves us to find out who will be joining them in relegation. Which brings us neatly round to Sunday where both 18th-placed Lecce and Genoa, a point and three goals better off in in 17th, are in action.

I have found a bet in both of their games as well as my corner bet of the day.

Lecce v Parma | Sunday 2nd August 2020, 19:45 | FreeSports

Lecce beat Udinese 2-1 in midweek to keep the flame flickering for their Serie A survival hopes, but to do that they realistically need a win here against a Parma side who have lost seven of their last 10 league games.

It is clear the bookies think Fabio Liverani’s side will throw the kitchen sink at their final bid for survival, with the home side 10/11 with Poker Stars to have 21 shots or more, given their season average is 13.8 and only creeps up slightly to 14 with home “advantage” we can see how much form goes out of the window when need and necessity comes to the fore.

The scale of the Gialorossi’s task is evident in that they have only won twice at home this season against teams above them in the league (W2-D5-L9) although one of those victories was against Lazio to begin a run of two wins in their last three here.

The Stadio Via del Mare outfit may be rooted in the bottom three but one table they feature in the top three of is that of penalties awarded with 15 spot kicks in their favour this season, also conceding 13, and six won in the 11 matches since restarting.  With Parma conceding 11 fouls inside their own box this season, scoring from 12 yards is most definitely a likely route to goal and possible salvation for the hosts.

Referee Maurizio Mariani has only awarded six penalties from his 20 Serie games this season and only one from six post lockdown outings, however in his one game officiating Lecce this campaign he awarded a spot kick both for and against them in a crazy 2-2 draw with Cagliari, which added to the four goals and two penalties, saw three red cards shown.

I am going to side with the Bet365 offering of 6/4 Signor Mariani points to the spot at least once here.

Genoa v Verona | Sunday 2nd August 2020, 19:45

Genoa hold their fate in their own hands as they end their campaign knowing a win guarantees top-flight football for another season, however, they come in to this crucial fixture on the back of successive defeats having not scored a goal in close to 200 minutes of action.

Once again, we find the home side at prohibitive odds on given their need for victory but with no form to justify that – and with Sunday's opponents not having the worst record going in to their clashes this season as underdogs, losing only 10 of 26 (38%) a record that actually slightly improves on the road (six defeats in 17 – 35%) – for me, the Grifone are unbackable.

Verona have had an excellent season since promotion via the play-offs last term with a finish as high as eighth still a possibility for them and given that, it’s safe to assume they will give claiming all three points here a good shot. With just three wins since lockdown though, I will give the result market a miss instead turning my attention to corners.

In a game where nothing is on the line for Ivan Juric’s guests they can set about attacking their potentially nervous hosts and come into this game having won exactly 100 corners on the road this term at an average of 5.56 per game. Unusually, that is actually higher than their home average (5.16) and in the return fixture the Gialloblu won four flag kicks – so I am confident in backing them to do the same here at odds of 10/11 with Sky Bet and make it five successive away games crossing that line.

Bologna v Torino | Sunday 2nd August 2020, 19:45

Bologna have lost three of their last four Serie A matches but a win here against a Torino side who have picked up just one point from their last nine road trips, could sneak Sinisa Mihajlovic’s side a final place inside the top-10.

Effectively though neither side have anything to play for other than a dash of pride which could/should make for an entertaining and open encounter here, which is why I make this my aforementioned bet of the day in the corner market.

The hosts have won the third most corners at home in the league this season, racking up an impressive 129 at an average of 7.17 per game. With Moreno Longo’s visitors conceding exactly seven flag kicks per-game on average away, I am taking the hosts to continue their run of winning seven or more corners in every game at their own Stadio Renato Dall’Ara since the restart which included games against Napoli and Juventus.

In fact, they are on a total run of six consecutive seven plus home corner hauls and you have to go back to February 15th for a time they didn’t cross this line here – in a match where they were reduced to 10 men in the first half. Sky Bet have Bologna winning 7+ corners at attractive looking odds of 10/11.

All games Over 2.5 Goals

Finally, as it’s the last day of the Italian season I’m also going to play an accumulator on all five games crossing the Over 2.5 Goals line – we saw this happen on Friday in Austria’s Erste Liga from their eight final day fixtures and both clubs have similar statistics in this market.

Serie A have seen 62.97% of games feature three or more goals whilst Austria’s second tier have had marginally more (63.75%). We can get on at 5/1 with GentingBet.

Best Bets

Lecce v Parma – A penalty to be awarded (6/4 Bet365)

Genoa v Verona – 4+ Verona Corners (10/11 SkyBet)

Bologna v Torino – 7+ Bologna Corners (10/11 SkyBet)

Serie A – All games Over 2.5 Goals (5/1 GentingBet)

About Author

Having had a passion for football for as long as I can remember – I’m talking Shoot League Ladders here – one of my first “bets” is still my biggest win. After begging my mum to let me fill in her pools coupon so I could show off my knowledge, eight draws later and a cheque for £11,500 was soon in the post. As a Norwich fan it’s important to have a good grasp of what’s going on in the lower leagues and I also like exploring those less popular leagues to have a delve into any stats-based markets that are available. Right now, I’m particularly enjoying player bets. Outside of sport, I love eating and drinking - maybe a little too much - as well as listening to a varied spectrum of music, both from the comfort of my own home and at festivals.

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