GROUP G comes to a close this Thursday when Senegal meet Colombia in Samara. Glenn Scurfield (@GScurfTrader) guides us through.
Senegal v Colombia | Thursday 27th June 2018, 15:00 | BBC
Senegal were tormented by Japan for the bulk of their last game but did edge it statistically. The Lions of Teranga produced an xG rating of 1.00 compared to Japan's 0.90.
Aliou Cisse openly criticised his side after the game. He stated “Of course there are regrets but we must say we didn’t see a great Senegal team tonight compared to the previous match against Poland“.
A loss against Colombia this Thursday would see Senegal sent packing. It's funny how quickly things can change – it's a matter of days since their 2-1 victory over Poland.
Colombia got off the mark against Poland in front of a wealth of supporters in Kazan. The party-like atmosphere brought out the best of Radamel Falcao, James Rodriguez, and Juan Cuadrado to name a few.
Los Cafeteros are in with a live chance of topping Group H, a feat which seemed unlikely after their opener against Japan.
Colombia posted an xG rating of 1.86 against Poland, converting 75% of their shots. Such return could be vital against Senegal. Colombia are currently averaging just 11 touches in the opposition box, a number on par with the likes of South Korea, Iceland, and Poland.
Senegal are around the 7/2 mark, a price evident in past games against Egypt, Ivory Coast and Morocco. Given Senegal need just a point to qualify, Under 2.5 Goals (89/100 Marathon) is worth considering.
Using three examples of occasions Colombia were a similar price, Under 2.5 Goals went off favourite. The average price was around 6/10.
If we use the aforementioned Senegal sample along with Colombia's three games, the average price of unders was 4/6. With the market currently offering 89/100 (Marathon) and the motivation of both sides to keep things tight, a play here is worthwhile.
Senegal v Colombia – Under 2.5 Goals (89/100 Marathon)