RACING fan Tommy Buckley (@tbuckleythinks) has analysed all the odds of previous Royal Ascot winners, pointing out any key trends to follow from a price perspective ahead of the 2019 meeting.
Royal Ascot | Price Analysis | 18th-22nd March 2019 | ITV
When the calendar turns over from May to June, my mind instantly starts ticking down to the start of Royal Ascot. For me, it's right up there amongst the biggest and best sporting events in the world.
Royal Ascot offers everything to the highest standard with regards to jockeys, trainers and horses, whilst the facilities, luxury and the all-important major races have a rich history to look back on, to enjoy, and to learn from.
In this piece I've gone through the results of three of my favourite Royal Ascot races: the Queen Anne Stakes, the Coventry Stakes and the King's Stand Stakes, to assess results from last 10 years and note the Starting Prices (SPs) of the winners and second/third-placed horses.
Queen Anne Stakes | Tuesday 18th June 2019, 14:30 | ITV
- 2009 – 10/3, 11/1 & 10/1
- 2010 – 118f, 11/4 & 50/1
- 2011 – 11/8, 5/4 & 14/1
- 2012 – 1/10f, 5/1 & 33/1
- 2013 – 15/2, 8/1 & 16/1
- 2014 – 4/5f, 6/1 & 9/1
- 2015 – 11/8f, 16/1 & 16/1
- 2016 – 11/2, 9/2 & 20/1
- 2017 – 11/10f, 5/1 & 12/1
- 2018 – 33/1, 20/1 & 10/1
Five of the last 10 renewals of the Queen Anne Stakes have been won by the favourite, all five were priced 11/8 or shorter.
From 2009 to 2017 every winner returned no bigger than 15/2 but last year the bookmakers were celebrating with a 33/1 winner, plus 20/1 and 10/1 places.
For those looking for large each-way options – apart from 2014 there has been at least one double-figure priced place in the first three in every year since 2009.
Thoughts for 2019
At the time of writing, the 2019 renewal looks open and incredibly competitive with Aidan O'Brien's Le Brivido at the head of the market around 4/1, whilst impressive Lockinge winner Mustashry is on the 5/1 mark and multiple Group 1 winning Laurens available at a general 6/1.
Accidental Agent shocked most of the world last year by winning at 33/1 and if you think he can repeat history then you can get at least 12/1 to claim Group 1 glory again – what a story that would be.
I won't be making final selections or bets until very close to Ascot starting but if I had to choose right now then I'd personally put my faith in the Lockinge form and say Mustashry is the one to beat and looks solid each-way at 5/1, whilst I'd also keep faith with an each-way bet on the admirable Laurens as she's got the talent and should improve for her run in the Lockinge.
Coventry Stakes | Tuesday 18th June 2019, 15:05 | ITV
- 2009 – 7/4f, 20/1 & 28/1
- 2010 – 15/8f, 3/1 & 22/1
- 2011 – 4/1f, 10/1 & 14/1
- 2012 – 7/2, 20/1 & 13/2
- 2013 – 20/1, 16/1 & 6/1
- 2014 – 5/1, 6/1 & 12/1
- 2015 – 6/1, 7/2 & 12/1
- 2016 – 13/8f, 8/1 & 9/2
- 2017 – 11/1, 33/1 & 8/1
- 2018 – 2/1, 10/1 & 3/1
Including in 2009, four favourites have won the Coventry Stakes but three of those came in successive years from 2009 through to 2011 – after that a favourite didn't win again until 2016.
Eight of the last 10 winners of the Coventry Stakes were priced 6/1 or under and four went off at 2/1 or under. A 20/1 triumph in 2013 and an 11/1 shout in 2017 have been the only double-figure priced winners in the last 10 years.
From the last 20 horses to finish either second or third in the Coventry Stakes, 11 were double figures SPs, including five returning 20/1 or larger.
Thoughts for 2019
At this stage most trainers/owners are yet to confirm exact running plans for their two-year-olds at Royal Ascot and lots of the contenders will have multiple entries, so most definitely it has to be a case of holding fire until the final field is declared.
That said it looks set to be another very exciting renewal and Arizona shot to favouritism around the 4/1 mark after a very, very impressive win over six furlongs at the Curragh, whilst the likes of Threat, Siskin and Monarch Of Egypt all also look major contenders priced from 5/1 through to 8/1 after impressive victories.
Of those current at double-figure prices, I was really impressed with how Pinatubo won at Epsom on Derby day, Bomb Proof looked professional when winning at York and Repartee impressed greatly when making most to win well – they are priced between 10/1 and 14/1.
The Coventry Stakes is one of my favourite Ascot races and I think this year's could be exceptional given the likely line up but waiting for the final decs will be key before making a big move. There is every chance Arizona could prove to be quite special but if I had to make a choice now for a sporting bet I'd take the each-way chance on Repartee as the performances at York did impress.
King's Stand Stakes | Tuesday 18th June 2019, 15:40 | ITV
- 2009 – 11/4f, 7/2 & 33/1
- 2010 – 9/2, 14/1 & 16/1
- 2011 – 7/1, 6/1 & 16/1
- 2012 – 12/1, 11/2 & 8/1
- 2013 – 8/1, 11/4f & 10/1
- 2014 – 5/1, 50/1 & 3/1
- 2015 – 20/1, 50/1 & 3/1
- 2016 – 4/1, 33/1 & 50/1
- 2017 – 7/2, 14/1 & 11/4f
- 2018 – 6/1, 9/4 & 20/1
Favourites actually have a poor record in the King's Stand Stakes, going right to the early 1990s. The last winning favourite was in 2009 so that's something that must concern current 9/4f Battaash backers.
Even though favourites have had a poor record in the contest, those sitting second, third or fourth in the betting have done very well as seven of the last nine winners have been priced 8/1 or under – the two real surprises came in 2012 with a 12/1 winner and 2015 via a 20/1 shot.
Big-priced each-way backers have scope to have a go too as the results show that there have been 11 double-figure prices placed second or third with three returning at 50/1 and two at 33/1.
Thoughts for 2019
Last year Blue Point won it impressively as a 6/1 shot beating 9/4f Battaash and Mabs Cross back in the third at 20/1. This year those three fill the first three places in the betting with Battaash 9/4f again, Blue Point 7/2 and Mabs Cross around the 8/1 mark.
Personally speaking, I've already backed Blue Point at 7/2 and I think he'll take all the beating again after looking better than ever with three high class wins in Meydan during the winter. Yes, Baataash looked incredible when winning recently but I'd much rather be on Blue Point to regain his crown.
Bring on the Royal Ascot action, I hope you find this piece to be interesting and a useful tool when the action does start.