MAN UTD travel to RB Leipzig for Tuesday's night's Champions League highlight. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) shares his betting thoughts.
RB Leipzig vs Manchester United | Tuesday 8th December 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
It’s a huge game in east Germany on Tuesday night with both Leipzig and Manchester United having the chance to progress to the knockout stages. There is also a possibility that both can go through but they’d need Basaksehir to get an unlikely result in Paris for that to occur. One thing is for sure, United avoid defeat and they’re through.
The Red Devils will take heart from their brilliant away form this season, their 3-1 victory at West Ham at the weekend made it 8 wins out of their last 9 on the road and their contain and counter style is certainly more suited to games where the pressure is slightly off. Given a draw will do, you’d expect 10 men behind the ball and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to utilise Marcus Rashford and Mason Greenwood as the outlets on the break.
Leipzig like to play in open games, that’s where they thrive. They can struggle against low blocks, at least last season, as they couldn’t utilise the pace of Timo Werner in behind due to the sheer lack of space.
Talented manager Julian Nagelsmann switched things up slightly in the summer, replacing Werner and Patrick Schick with Alexander Sorloth who had a terrific season in Turkey. Sorloth has a larger frame and can play against a low block but can also shift in transitions so offers them greater versatility in that regard. Youssef Poulsen can also bring others such as Christian N’Kunku and Dani Olmo into the game with his hold up play.
It is an area that Nagelsmann has identified to improve and overall, they have. Die Roten Bullen have beaten the teams that they should have, Bielefeld, Mainz, Freiburg, Hertha and Schalke have all been defeated on home soil as well as PSG and Basaksehir in this competition which means they’ve won 7/7 at home this season.
I do think there is little between the teams and I’m not going to be clouded by the reverse fixture which ended 5-0 to United. That was them on a good day and Leipzig on probably their worst day for years. I keep coming back to the point that the visitors simply don’t need to win here, it’s no surprise whatsoever to see them drifting in the markets after opening at around 9/5.
Man Utd could well score here though, it’s hard to see them not troubling the hosts on the break, it’s extremely rare that the visitors fail to score on the road and they’re up against a Leipzig side without the influential Dayot Upamecano at the heart of the defence.
With that in mind, I’m going to combine two short prices to form an odds-against shot. Betway offer the Double Chance and Both Teams To Score market and we can back Leipzig in that at 11/10 which looks a clever way in.
I am expecting a fast start from the hosts too, Nagelsmann will be well aware of how United have started slowly in games and Leipzig themselves have started games on the front foot in this competition last season. United have conceded in the first half in 5 of their last 7 and went 1-0 down to PSG in MD5 after just 6 minutes.
There’s some 9/2 available with William Hill on Leipzig to be leading at 15 minutes and at that price I’m willing to have a tickle on.
Finally, I will dip into the props market and take Leipzig’s current player of the season, Angelino, to attempt 2 or more shots at a generous 9/5 on Coral’s BuildYourBet market. The left back has been getting well advanced in this set up and regularly finds himself in the box.
15 of his 19 shots have been inside the box too showing just how involved he gets. He has attempted 2 or more shots in 6/10 Bundesliga games and 2/5 Champions League games so I’m surprised this isn’t closer to even-money, 6/4 is available with Betfair and Paddy Power if that price does get gobbled up and that’s the minimum price I’d go to in order to get the value.
Best Bets
RB Leipzig vs Manchester United – RB Leipzig to be leading after 15 minutes (9/2 William Hill)
RB Leipzig vs Manchester United – RB Leipzig Double Chance and Both Teams To Score (11/10 Betway)
RB Leipzig vs Manchester United – Angelino 2+ shots (9/5 Coral)
