THE BUNDESLIGA continues on Wednesday evening and Tom Love (@TomLove_18) is on-hand to preview the match-up between RB Leipzig and Hertha Berlin.
RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin | Wednesday 27th May 2020, 17:30 | BT Sport
RB Leipzig hit back from their disappointing draw with Freiburg last week with a resounding 5-0 shellacking of Mainz. It was some way to once again show their dominance and despite creating a similar amount, Die Roten Bullen were clinical as can be on Sunday.
They welcome fellow East German outfit Hertha Berlin on Wednesday and no doubt the blue and whites will be buoyant after back-to-back wins since the return from the enforced break. Matheus Cunha once again starred in the rout and he’s looking like a more inspired signing every week. Coach Bruno Labbadia will be hoping that the Brazilian can spark some magic again as he faces his former club.
Sure, a 3-0 win at Hoffenheim may have been a touch flattering, but in the big Friday night derby versus Union they really turned on the style in a dominant and ruthless second half display. On the face of it, seven goals scored and zero conceded is a superb return to action, but they face a much more difficult assignment here.
Leipzig have been superb under their talented coach Julian Nagelsmann and they still have faint hopes of a title challenge. It’s a squad strong in all areas and although Emil Forsberg, Konrad Laimer and Ibrahima Konate are doubts and Yussuf Poulsen is out they have ample replacements in what is a strong roster.
Patrick Schick impressed before the break and is likely to come in for the injured Poulsen. Nordi Mukiele could shift to right wing back too given his versatility whilst Marcel Sabitzer has revelled in a deeper central role, taking on more responsibility. Kevin Kampl was superb at the weekend and is likely to partner him in the middle of the park.
The betting angles
This should be a fun and interesting game between two teams who should be confident after convincing weekend victories. The bookies make Leipzig strong 1/3 favourites and that’s understandable given their standing in the table and impressive performance data. Also throw in that Hertha conceded an Expected Goals (xG) figure north of three in their last trip on the road and it’s hard not to see a home win.
I would not be surprised to see the visitors get on the scoresheet, mind. With that train of thought I’ll boost the 1/3 to a more palatable 7/10 (Ladbrokes) by chucking Over 2.5 Goals into the mix.
Every single one of Leipzig’s wins this season have also seen three or more goals scored. What’s more, 10/11 Hertha losses have seen Over 2.5 Goals also land.
I’ll also dip into the player props market once more and I like the look of Leipzig defender Lukas Klostermann to win two or more tackles which is priced at 19/20 with Coral.
Klostermann tends to play on the right-side of a back three and does find himself having to cover for the advanced right wing back on occasion. The tricky Cunha could be hovering around his space and that makes him an attractive play in the tackle market.
Klostermann has made 2+ tackles in 13/22 games he’s played 90 minutes in and also made three or more in seven of those. His lines are lower than other players who average fewer tackles. I’ll also put up the German for 3+ tackles at 14/5. If I were to do a staking plan I’d go 75% on 2+ and 25% on 3+.
Leipzig also rank second in the league for successful tackles – an average of 18.6 per-game. These same bets are priced at 4/9 and 5/4 with other firms.