CHAMPIONSHIP specialist James O'Rourke (@JamesOR1) shares his thoughts on Monday night's match-up between QPR and Brentford.
QPR v Brentford | Monday 28th October 2019, 19:45 | Sky Sports
We have a more than tasty local derby to whet the appetite on Monday night in front of the TV cameras as in-form duo Queens Park Rangers and Brentford take to the famous Loftus Road field.
QPR have been the surprise package of the season in the Championship, whilst Brentford are starting to find their feet after a sluggish start.
QPR = goals
There may not be much science contained in the above equation but it is pretty simple to understand! Whenever QPR are involved, goals tend to be involved. That is both for and against. Their 13 league encounters so far has reached an average of around 3.50 goals per game; one of the highest in the division.
Ten of their 13 fixtures have also defeated the 2.5 goal line. Only three therefore finished under, and whilst two of those were in home games, 5/7 at Loftus Road has still featured a minimum of three goals. Those with a season ticket at that venue certainly get their monies worth!
It is not so much of a surprise that this is a case considering Mark Warburton is their manager. He clearly favours a real front-foot mentality, whereby they’re more than a threat in attack but defensively they they’re prepared to take a few risks, especially at home.
Their home games alone average just shy of 4.00 goals, and they’ve conceded at least two goals in seven of their nine home clashes this season in all competitions. On the flip side, they’ve netted twice or more in five, and three of more in four.
They are however yet to go at least four matches unbeaten this season, so that is one hurdle for them to overcome on Monday night. Brentford certainly won’t go easy on them.
Bees finishing the job
Brentford had been creating the opportunities earlier in the season but were desperately struggling to take them, at least enough of them. The departure of Neal Maupay hit them hard, and converting Ollie Watkins into a central striker might have worked in one sense, but it possibly weakened them in another.
Defensively they’ve actually been quite solid this season considering they’ve conceded only two or more goals twice. They scored a total of five goals across their opening eight Championship games this season, but they’ve managed to now score three or more in three of their previous five in the league. With QPR shipping a few, the Bees will believe they can deliver the goods in this derby, certainly offensively.
One thing Thomas Frank had been craving was a complete away performance and he certainly got that in midweek. To go away from home and win at Swansea is one thing, but to do it as emphatically as 3-0 suggests is a real statement to the rest of the league. It is emphasised even more so with Sergi Canos out long-term and Nikos Karelis also out injured.
They have failed to score in four of their seven away league games this season, but you’d like to think the Swansea triumph will be a springboard for them. Consistency hasn’t really been their friend for a while, but back-to-back wins will begin to change that stigma.
The betting angle
This has been a game which has caught the eye for quite a few years now when goals are concerned. The last six head-to-head scores read 3-1, 1-4, 2-2, 2-1, 3-2 and 3-0. It has been a regular meeting since 2015, with Brentford winning six of those nine renewals and only the two wins for QPR, although both did come at Loftus Road.
Derbies can sometimes be tight and cagey affairs but the style that both Warburton and Frank set up their respective teams to me suggests that we’d be unlucky if that was the case in this one. Both are scoring goals and they aren’t heading into this looking for a point.
Both Teams To Score and Over 2 Goals is the play at evens (Bet365) on the bet-builder. Although BTTS hasn’t necessarily paid out as often in Brentford games this season it has occurred in 11/15 of QPR’s battles overall. We can see both are scoring goals and whilst plenty of respect will be shown, it won’t be enough for either coach to move away from their true beliefs, and ultimately strengths.
Best Bets
QPR v Brentford – Both Teams To Score and Over 2 Goals (1/1 Bet365)
