PREMIER LEAGUE analyst Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) takes a look at Wednesday night's card, sharing his best bets.
Bournemouth v Chelsea | Wednesday 30th January 2019, 19:45
Regular visitors to Dean Court have certainly been entertained this term, with 38 goals scored in 12 league games so far this season. In contrast, Chelsea games have been rather dull in recent times, with just 20 goals scored in their last 12 matches.
However, I look at Bournemouth’s attitude to matches, particularly at home and am always tempted by the Both Teams To Score angle. The Cherries have scored in 10 of their 12 home matches this term and both sides have netted in seven of these.
Additionally, if you look at their record since they were promoted to the Premier League, the Both Teams To Score angle would have landed in 13 of their 21 games (62%) against the Big Six at Dean Court. The 3/4 Bet365 are offering on both sides netting suggests a probability of 57% so I am happy to recommend this bet.
Additionally, I like the look of a 2-1 away victory for Chelsea, that is available at 8/1 with the same firm. Bournemouth have already lost by this scoreline against Manchester United and Arsenal this season, while this season Chelsea have won in this manner in three of their nine away matches against sides outside the Big Six.
Southampton v Crystal Palace | Wednesday 30th January 2019, 19:45
I can’t be the only person who continues to look at the table expecting to see these two fighting for a top half spot. While both sides have issues scoring goals, their general play is of a far greater standard than the rest of the sides fighting for survival.
However, it is Crystal Palace who I really like the look of. Scoring three goals at both The Etihad and Anfield shows you the attacking capability of this side and I expect them to enjoy the kind of revival we saw in the second half of last season.
Palace are 6/5 (888) in the Draw No Bet market and I think there is plenty of evidence to give us confidence that this is a good angle. While Southampton’s performance and results have improved under Ralph Hassenhutl, they’ve still lost at home to West Ham, away to Cardiff and been knocked out of the FA Cup by Derby within the German’s first 10 games in charge.
Moreover, since the start of last season, the Saints home record against sides from seventh down reads W5-D9-L6. Are they really the statistics you want to see when backing a 7/5 shot?
Under Roy Hodgson, Palace have been decent away from home against this peer group, losing just seven of their 20 league games under the former England boss. I believe that a draw is the most likely scoreline, but given the South London’s ability on the break, I will air on the safe side and back Palace in the Draw No Bet market at 6/5.
Tottenham v Watford | Wednesday 30th January 2019, 20:00
This one is more of a circumstance bet rather than based on statistics, but I cannot help think that the 11/4 Bet365 are offering on Spurs to win by a single goal is too big.
With Harry Kane and Dele Alli missing, it’s hard to see Tottenham running away with this one but they should still have enough to get past a talented Watford outfit.
Goals may be at a premium but I still expect the North London side to dominate possession, with 1-0 and 2-1 scorelines both seeming very possible to me.
Best Bets
Bournemouth v Chelsea – Both Teams To Score (3/4 Bet365)
Bournemouth v Chelsea – Bournemouth 1-2 Chelsea (8/1 Bet365)
Southampton v Crystal Palace – Crystal Palace draw no bet (6/5 888)
Tottenham v Watford – Tottenham to win by exactly one goal (11/4 Bet365)
