TWO out of three last week for Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79). Can his profitable run continue this weekend?
Burnley v Southampton | Saturday 15:00
This looks a fascinating fixture. I guess the key question surrounds Southampton and how they'll perform after taking just one point from their last four games.
The Saints have been desperately unlucky in two of those games. Although Arsenal were the better side in their match last midweek, it was particularly cruel on Ronald Koeman's side to lose very late in the match. Monday night may have been tougher to take though. They dominated the stats and possession but still lost 2-1 to Manchester United.
One would presume it will be Koeman's biggest test yet, as he tries to rouse his troops to face a side they are widely expected to beat. Opponents Burnley are no mugs though and this will be a massive test of the Dutchman's credentials.
Burnley look buzzy. They look eager. They look together. They've only lost one game in their last five, and it's not ridiculous to suggest they might stay up. Looking at their last few games, I make it late-October against Everton the last time they looked out of their depth.
I'm backing them to score in this game. True, they've only scored 10 goals this season, but nine of those goals have came in the last nine fixtures. Sean Dyche's side have notched in seven of their last nine matches and it's five in a row at Turf Moor. There's enough there for me to have faith in them.
Both Teams To Score is where I'm going as I think Saints can also notch. They've registered in 13 of their last 16 matches, with Man City, Arsenal and Tottenham the sides they failed to score against. No shame in that. They've got 25 goals in the Premier League goal bank already this season and I think they can increase that on Saturday.
Evens are what BetVictor are offering for Both Teams To Score and that's good enough for me.
Leicester v Man City | Saturday 15:00
Taking a bit of a punt with this one. I think Man City might find things a bit stodgy at the King Power on Saturday and I'll be playing the Unders market.
My reasoning is two-fold. Firstly, losing talismanic figure Sergio Aguero is an enormous blow. He's scored 14 of City's 32 Premier League goals this season and his absence should cost them points at some stage. Secondly, I think they'll be knackered after Wednesday night. The Citizens produced one of their best ever results by beating Roma away and qualifying for the Last 16 of the Champions League. They must be physically and mentally fatigued after the ecstasy of that triumph.
Manuel Pellegrini's side have failed to score more than two goals in a league match in 10 of their 15 games this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a flat performance from the champions on Saturday.
Opponents Leicester are having a miserable time with seven defeats from their last eight matches, but crucially they're not getting hammered. Four of those seven defeats were by the odd goal and you just feel they're due a bit of luck. In only three of their 15 matches have they conceded more than two. Goals have been hard to come by, they fired five blanks in a row between mid-October and mid-November.
That's another reason to side with the Under 2.5 Goals at 13/8 with Paddy Power.
Arsenal v Newcastle | Saturday 17:30 | Sky Sports 1
Last week I did an OMG at the West Ham odds at home to Swansea. This week it's very much a WTF at how the bookmakers have priced up Arsenal. How can they be as short as 2/5 at home to Newcastle? Eh?
I appreciate that Arsenal are a very good side, better than Newcastle, and have only lost twice at home in near 18 months in the league, but they're vulnerable.
As I mentioned last week, I can't recall an outstanding performance from Arsenal this season when it really mattered. Answers on a postcard…I took them on against Stoke and I'm happy to side with Newcastle on the Asian Handicap here.
Arsenal have won just three of their seven home league games this season, and only one of those victories came with a goal to spare. I can't see them pulling away from Newcastle.
Newcastle are receiving a lot of plaudits just now, and that's thoroughly deserved. Seven wins from their last nine matches. They've beaten Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool in that spell and sit on the same number of points than Arsenal.
I'm more than happy to back Newcastle with a goal start on the Asian Handicap at 10/7 with BetVictor. If they lose by the odd goal, I get my money back. Remember Newcastle have taken out the two best sides in England this season while Arsenal have only won by more than one clear goal in three of their 15 games in this Premier League season. Burnley, Sunderland and Aston Villa were the victims – Newcastle are a step above those sides.
Burnley v Southampton – Both Teams To Score (EVS BetVictor)
Leicester v Man City – Under 2.5 Goals (13/8 Paddy Power)
Arsenal v Newcastle – Newcastle +1 Asian Handicap (10/7 BetVictor)