PREMIER LEAGUE expert Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his best bets from Saturday's 3pm kick-offs.
Leicester v Cardiff | Saturday 29th December 2018, 15:00
Football is a funny old game, as these two sides have proved over the last week. Leicester managed to win at Chelsea and beat champions Manchester City, while Cardiff conceded 31 shots – yet no goals – away to a Crystal Palace side who scored three goals from five shots in their previous game against Man City.
Having looked at the squads, numbers and results, the only reason I can find to oppose Leicester is that they may struggle to motivate themselves after two emotionally draining matches. Still, I cannot find any reason to make a case for Cardiff here.
The Bluebirds have collected just two points from nine games on their travels and it's difficult to find too many hard luck stories. They probably should have beaten ten-man Huddersfield but that aside, I think their record is fair.
My angle here is to back Leicester and Under 4.5 Goals – it's 5/6 with Betway. All four of Leicester's home victories have seen four goals or fewer while four of Cardiff's seven away defeats have seen such a bet emerge victorious. Two of the losses that wouldn't see us in the winners enclosure were at Chelsea and Liverpool, both of whom have more attacking prowess than Leicester.
While Neil Warnock will surely be concerned that his side faced 31 shots against Crystal Palace I believe that he will see the goalless draw in a positive light and expect his side to set up in a similar fashion.
Ultimately though, I believe the Foxes will break them down but struggle to see the home side scoring more than three or the away side more than one, so this seems like a good way of getting a bigger price on a favourite I expect to prevail.
Tottenham v Wolves | Saturday 29th December 2018, 15:00
Having watched Wolves in the Premier League this season, I have come to the opinion that they are a side that I would rather back to avoid defeat than to actually win a game. Just six of their 19 matches have been settled by a single goal and all six of those were 2-0 scorelines (two victories and four defeats).
Wolves are also the bookies darlings, with their performance data suggesting they are the fifth best side in the league this campaign, which makes it all the more surprising that Tottenham are as short as 1/3 in places.
My angle is to back Wolves +1.5 goals at 3/4 with BetVictor. Aside from the fact that they've performed well this season, their results – and performances – against the Big Six this term give me a lot of confidence. In six matches, they have just two defeats, with only one – at home to Liverpool – last weekend, being by more than a single goal.
They've already managed 1-1 draws at Arsenal and Manchester United already this term so I believe that they will go in to this encounter with plenty of confidence despite Tottenham's excellent results recently.
I say results as while the North London club deserved to beat both Everton and Bournemouth over the last week, a return of 11 goals flatters them hugely and is simply unsustainable. Over 39% of their shots across those two matches have resulted in goals, with their XG tally not even reaching five.
I think Tottenham probably do win this game but I think a margin of a single goal is the most likely method. Spurs have recorded single goal victories against Burnley and Cardiff already this term and Wolves are a far tougher proposition.
The Black Country outfit have conceded just 22 goals in 19 league matches this season and have actually scored even fewer (20). Despite Tottenham's recent goal glut I do not expect too many goals and will supplement my main bet with a 1-0 home victory, which is available at 13/2 with Bet365.
Best Bets
Leicester v Cardiff – Leicester to win and Under 4.5 Goals (5/6 Betway)
Tottenham v Wolves – Wolves +1.5 Asian Handicap (3/4 BetVictor)
Tottenham v Wolves – Tottenham to win 1-0 (13/2 Bet365)
