Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) takes a look at the weekend Premier League action for us.
Brighton v Liverpool
Liverpool travel to Brighton this weekend hoping for their first victory of 2019. The Reds title hopes were dealt a blow with the 2-1 defeat at Manchester City just over a week ago and they look skinny in the outright market. They are a best price of 1/3, which looks like madness when you consider that Brighton have only lost twice in ten home games this term.
However, while I couldn’t possibly back Liverpool at that price, I do like the look of them to win by a single goal at 38/11 with RedZone Bet. Brighton may have beaten Manchester United and held Arsenal on their home turf, but Jurgen Klopp’s side are a class apart from those sides and it’s worth noting that both Chelsea and Tottenham – who are closer to Liverpool in terms of ability – left The Amex with 2-1 victories.
Since Klopp arrived at Anfield, they have faced away ties to sides outside of the top six on 47 occasions and have won by a single goal 14 times. This suggests that a price of 5/2 on this bet would be fair, so 38/11 is excellent value.
I also like the look of Liverpool to win 2-1 at 35/4 with SportPesa. Across that 47 game sample, they
have won by this scorelines on seven occasions, while Brighton have lost in this manner at home to
both Chelsea and Tottenham this term.
Leicester v Southampton
Last season, this fixture would have been a popular both teams to score pick, with 45 of their combined 76 (59%) matches seeing both sides finding the net. If that is to be the case this weekend, I think 1-1 backers will be the ones celebrating as the 5/6 offered by Marathon Bet on under 2.5 goals looks like great value to me.
New boss Ralph Hasenhuttl has certainly somewhat of an upturn in his sides fortunes, with The Saints gaining seven points from his six Premier League games. Given that they have faced Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal in that sample that looks like a decent return to me. One thing I have noticed, however, is that Southampton have been quite cautious on their travels. They had just one short on target away to Cardiff and only two when they travelled to Stamford Bridge. They were more attacking in their 3-1 victory at Huddersfield but with Danny Ings missing I don’t see them being too gung-ho this weekend and they would surely be delighted to travel back to the South Coast with a point.
They face a Leicester side who simply cannot be trusted, with recent wins against Everton, Manchester City and Chelsea coupled with a loss at home to Cardiff and a Third Round FA Cup exit against Newport. Despite some impressive recent victories, Leicester fans remain unconvinced by manager Claude Puel and it’s hard to foresee a fervent home atmosphere leading them to a comfortable victory on Saturday afternoon.
I expect a relatively tight encounter and am buoyed by the fact that despite the both teams to score stat, under 2.5 goals looks like a value call. Goals against ‘The Big Six’ tend to see more goals but if you exclude these then 15 of Leicester 20 home matches since the start of last season have seen two goals or fewer. Additionally, 12 of Southampton’s 20 away matches have seen this bet obliged. This strike rate of 68% suggests that the 5/6 MarathonBet are offering is exceptional value.
Best Bets
Brighton v Liverpool – Liverpool to win by exactly one goal (38/11 RedZone Bet)
Brighton v Liverpool – Liverpool to win 2-1 (35/4 SportPesa)
Leicester v Southampton – Under 2.5 Goals (5/6 MarathonBet)
