PREMIER LEAGUE analyst Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) takes a look at Saturday's 3pm night's action, picking out his best bets.
West Ham v Leicester | Saturday 20th April 2019, 15:00
I struggle to believe that there is a more inconsistent side in the Premier League that West Ham. It’s hard to decide which Hammers side will turn up this weekend: the one who went to Old Trafford, outplayed the home side and won the shot count 18-14 or the one that lost 2-0 at home to Everton while having just three attempts to their opponents 17.
Leicester have 12 points from six games under Brendan Rodgers but have had a relatively easy run of fixtures. They are yet to face a top six side and their four victories have come against three of the most out of form sides in the league – Huddersfield, Fulham and Bournemouth – and a quite fortunate victory at Burnley.
Indeed, while I do believe that Rodgers will be a success in the East Midlands, I wouldn’t go near his side at a best price of 13/10 for this encounter.
Instead, I like the look of Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals, which is available at 20/21 with Boylesports. This bet has been a winner in four of Rodgers six games as Foxes boss and at this stage of the season – with little for either to play for – I can see this game getting out of hand.
I wouldn’t be surprised if either side won by a silly scoreline so think this is a fairly safe play.
Wolves v Brighton | Saturday 20th April 2019, 15:00
This game is the reverse fixture of one of my most unfortunate losses this season. Despite Wolves winning the shot count at The Amex 25-7, they somehow lost the match. I remember writing at the time that this was during a run of three 1-0 victories for the Sussex side, during which they faced 69 shots yet somehow failed to concede.
Wolves lost 3-1 at Southampton last week, which suits the ‘they’ve lost motivation since losing an FA Cup semi-final’ agenda, but given that they dominated possession and the shot count against the Saints, I don’t think they are ‘on the beach’. Seventh place is still a very real possibility and I expect them to be on the front foot at Molineux on Saturday afternoon.
My first preference was to back a 1-0 victory for both sides but having looked at the stats that feels like too much of a gut feel, so instead I will chance Both Teams To Score at 6/5 with Ladbrokes.
Seventeen of Wolves’ 33 Premier League games have seem both sides net and it’s an identical stat for Brighton. Indeed, while I expect Brighton to try and keep it tight, recent evidence suggests they don’t have the ability to.
All things considered, this looks like the statistical bet.
Best Bets
West Ham v Leicester – Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals (20/21 Boylesports)
Wolves v Brighton – Both Teams To Score (6/5 Ladbrokes)
