PREMIER LEAGUE fanatic Tommy Buckley (@tbuckleythinks) looks at the goals trends and statistics across the opening 12 weeks of 2019/20 campaign.
Premier League | Goal analysis
All 20 teams have played 12 games each and with the action all set to kick-off again after the international break, now feels like a good time to take a statistical look at how the season has played out looking at three particular goals markets: Both Teams To Score, Over 1.5 Goals and Over 2.5 Goals.
These are the most popular football betting markets with punters in the betting shop I work in; Over 1.5 Goals multiples is the bet I've personally had most success with so far this term. From that I'll look at their respective upcoming Premier League fixtures and note any bets I believe are worthwhile, based on the trends.
Both Teams To Score
Here is a breakdown of how all 20 Premier League teams have performed in terms of the matches from a Both Teams To Score perspective:
- Liverpool = 10/12 (83%)
- Tottenham = 9/12 (75%)
- Wolves = 9/12 (75%)
- Arsenal = 8/12 (67%)
- Aston Villa = 8/12 (67%)
- Bournemouth = 8/12 (67%)
- Chelsea = 8/12 (67%)
- Southampton = 8/12 (67%)
- Manchester United = 7/12 (58%)
- Burnley = 6/12 (50%)
- Everton = 6/12 (50%)
- Leicester = 6/12 (50%)
- Manchester City = 6/12 (50%)
- Newcastle = 6/12 (50%)
- Norwich = 6/12 (50%)
- West Ham = 6/12 (50%)
- Watford = 5/12 (42%)
- Brighton = 5/12 (42%)
- Sheffield United = 5/12 (42%)
- Crystal Palace = 4/12 (33%)
Arsenal and Southampton have both so far seen 67% of their respective Premier League matches feature Both Teams To Score – that's the second best match-up in terms of the statistics in forthcoming fixtures so the 8/13 available for BTTS in the Emirates encounter appears fair enough as neither side can be relied upon to keep a clean sheet.
The shortest BTTS odds in the next set of Premier League matches is the 4/9 as West Ham host Tottenham. Now West Ham matches only have a 50% strike rate on the BTTS front but Tottenham joint-top with 75%; the intense, open nature of this London derby suggests goals and although that 4/9 is short, it will be popular as both will believe they can register on the scoresheet.
Bournemouth versus Wolves is actually one of the best match-ups on the BTTS numbers with 67% and 75% figures thus far. It's 8/11 for Both Teams To Score and whilst Bournemouth's lack of goals prior to the Newcastle match is of interest, it is still a game profile that appeals.
The other Premier League match that appeals in terms of this market is Brighton against Leicester. Their respective BTTS stats don't appear that strong overall but Brighton have been very good and attack minded at home whilst Leicester are confident of taking anybody on right now, 4/6 seems perfectly reasonable.
For anybody tempted by those four matches as a potential four-fold it would equate to just over 11/2 on current prices.
Over 1.5 Goals
Here is a breakdown of how all 20 Premier League teams have performed in terms of the matches from an Over 1.5 Goals perspective:
- Manchester City = 12/12 (100%)
- Brighton = 11/12 (92%)
- Burnley = 11/12 (92%)
- Liverpool = 11/12 (92%)
- Norwich = 11/12 (92%)
- Southampton = 11/12 (92%)
- Tottenham = 11/12 (92%)
- West Ham = 11/12 (92%)
- Wolves = 11/12 (92%)
- Aston Villa = 10/12 (83%)
- Chelsea = 10/12 (83%)
- Leicester = 10/12 (83%)
- Arsenal = = 9/12 (75%)
- Crystal Palace = 9/12 (75%)
- Everton = 9/12 (75%)
- Manchester United = 9/12 (75%)
- Watford = 9/12 (75%)
- Bournemouth = 8/12 (67%)
- Newcastle = 7/12 (58%)
- Sheffield United = 7/12 (58%)
A quick glance at this particular table will show that Over 1.5 Goals certainly has been the most solid way to go in the Premier League so far. Whilst the odds are particularly short in individual matches, the fact 17 of the 20 teams have seen Over 1.5 Goals in 75%+ of matches – 11 of those 17 seeing 83%+ hit-rates – does show this is definitely a market to pay close attention to.
Brighton versus Leicester to go Over 1.5 Goals is 2/7,. Given that they've respectively seen 92% and 83% of their league matches achieve that then you'd have to say that's pretty fair considering the much shorter odds for other matches.
Unless there are some real strange results, I really would expect Over 1.5 Goals to collect at Brighton, West Ham vs Tottenham, Arsenal vs Southampton, Bournemouth vs Wolves, and Man City vs Chelsea without too much fuss given the likely profiles of those contests. We'd get just over 6/4 for that five-fold.
It actually wouldn't be that big of a surprise to see all the Premier League fixtures go Over 1.5 Goals and for those tempted it would be around the 8/1 mark; potentially an option to consider if you can't decide the result but expect entertainment.
Over 2.5 Goals
Here is a breakdown of how all 20 Premier League teams have performed in terms of the matches from an Over 2.5 Goals perspective:
- Liverpool = 10/12 (83%)
- Manchester City = 10/12 (83%)
- Aston Villa = 9/12 (75%)
- Burnley = 9/12 (75%)
- Chelsea = 8/12 (67%)
- Southampton = 8/12 (67%)
- Tottenham = 8/12 (67%)
- Bournemouth = 7/12 (58%)
- Leicester = 7/12 (58%)
- Arsenal = 6/12 (50%)
- Brighton = 6/12 (50%)
- Norwich = 6/12 (50%)
- West Ham = 6/12 (50%)
- Everton = 5/12 (42%)
- Newcastle = 5/12 (42%)
- Watford = 5/12 (42%)
- Crystal Palace = 4/12 (33%)
- Manchester United 4/12 (33%)
- Sheffield United = 3/12 (25%)
- Wolves = 3/12 (25%)
The statistics for Over 2.5 Goals in the Premier League aren't as strong or solid as those for Over 1.5 and no doubt it's a tougher market to call with confidence.
Looking at the forthcoming fixtures, Manchester City versus Chelsea is the highest profile match and offers the shortest Over 2.5 odds at only 2/5. City have had 100% of their matches go Over 1.5 and 83% Over 2.5, whilst for Chelsea it's 83% and 67% – those stats combined with the likely nature of the match suggests plenty of attacking play and goalmouth action.
Judged on the statistics alone, Brighton vs Leicester doesn't immediately scream to be a great Over 2.5 bet but I do think that the price of 5/6 makes it a tempting option given how both clubs play and how they will approach the game. It's a meeting that definitely has the feel of a 2-1/3-1/2-2 type and I do think that 5/6 could well be worth the risk.
West Ham vs Tottenham will be a popular match for goals punters given the profile. 8/15 for Over 2.5 is short and isn't amazing value but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if it collected – it certainly looks a better 8/15 shot than the Everton or Crystal Palace matches in the same market.
It's dangerous to dismiss any fixture on the goals front but I personally think that the Crystal Palace vs Liverpool and Everton vs Norwich matches are very short at 8/15 in the Over 2.5 markets. I wouldn't be rushing to back those particular options.
