PREMIER LEAGUE analyst Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) takes a look at Saturday's 3pm night's action, picking out his best bets.
Burnley v Cardiff | Saturday 13th April 2019, 15:00
I can assure you that backing Burnley at odds-on is not something I make a habit of, but I actually feel like the Clarets are a good thing at 10/11 with Bet365.
While overall it may seem like a poor season, since their 5-1 loss at home to Everton on Boxing Day – which led to Tom Heaton replacing Joe Hart in goal – Sean Dyche’s side have been an all together tougher proposition. Burnley managed 26 points from 15 matches in that run and won four of their seven home matches, including victory over Tottenham.
Moreover, their two home defeats were both unfortunate as they comfortably won the Expected Goals (xG) battle against Leicester and Crystal Palace.
Away, Cardiff have lost 11 of their 15 matches and their two victories were both very much of the smash n’ grab variety. Neil Warnock’s men need to win this game to have any hope of survival but while they were unfortunate against Chelsea a fortnight ago, the reality is that they haven’t been good enough this term.
I wouldn’t put anyone off backing a 1-0 or 2-0 home victory, but I will keep my cash solely for the home victory.
Southampton v Wolves | Saturday 13th April 2019, 15:00
Despite being an West Brom fan, I must confess that while I enjoyed Wolves getting defeated by Watford last week, the reality is that from that position (2-0 up with 11 minutes to go) I think Watford could have played that game 200 times and not managed to get a draw.
While Wolves were fortunate to be 2-0 up it wasn’t as though the Hornets created umpteen chances in the final quarter of the game. Gerard Deulofeu scored a rather improbable goal and while it probably was a penalty, it was hardly a goal-preventing foul.
Anyway, while I am not quite sure how Wolves will react to that , I do think this will be a more entertaining encounter than the odds suggest. Southampton games have been relatively enjoyable watches this term and it is worth noting that 20 of their 32 league games (63%) have seen both sides find the net.
Moreover, under new boss Ralph Hassenhutl, they are even more prolific, with 13 out of 18 matches in all competitions (72%) obliging.
Wolves games have often been tight but actually half of their matches have also seen such a bet emerge victorious. Across a sample of 64 league matches between these two, that’s a 56% strike rate, which suggests that the even-money William Hill are offering on such a bet is too big.
Best Bets
Burnley v Cardiff – Burnley to win (10/11 Bet365)
Southampton v Wolves – Both Teams To Score (1/1 William Hill)
