DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his favourite fancies from Wednesday night's Premier League coupon.
Chelsea v Aston Villa | Wednesday 4th December 2019, 19:30 | Amazon Prime
Predicting scorelines in Chelsea games this season has been problematic but the pattern of their matches have been pretty consistent: they create lots of chances but also concede too many.
This has been evident in the Blues' top-line statistics; to date this season they have scored 52 and conceded 28 in 22 matches (3.63 average) across all competitions this term. Both Teams To Score has landed in 15 of those 22 matches and that is the market I am visiting again.
Chelsea welcome back Aston Villa’s assistant manager John Terry and they will be pleased to face a defence that has been so hospitable this term. Villa have allowed more efforts on goal than any other side this season and have conceded 22 goals in just 14 matches. Still, they have managed 21 goals themselves and with attacking talents such as John McGinn and Jack Grealish in their ranks I can see them causing the West London side plenty of problems.
Both Teams To Score has landed in nine of Aston Villa’s 14 league games this season (same figure for Chelsea) including away to Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United and a home game against Liverpool.
Ultimately, Villa have lost three of those four matches though, which is why a Chelsea victory and Both Teams To Score gets my vote. It is 8/5 with Boylesports and given that has landed in five of the home sides eight league victories this season, I am happy to keep it on side.
Southampton v Norwich | Wednesday 4th December 2019, 19:30 | Amazon Prime
With 15 minutes to go on Saturday it looked like it may well be Ralph Hassenhutl’s final game in charge of his club but a late comeback ensured that it was his opponent Quique Sanchez Flores who had his P45.
Southampton are not a side that I can really predict but – like Chelsea – their games are awash with goals.
Since Hassenhutl took charge almost a year ago to the day, there have been 136 goals in 43 matches (3.16 a game), with both sides to score landing in 31 of those games.
This season Norwich matches have been a little less entertaining than I expected, with the Norfolk side managing just 15 goals across their 14 games and BTTS landing in just seven of those encounters.
However, I believe this is due to the volume of injuries they suffered at the start of the season and the fact that BTTS obliged in 31 of their 46 league matches last season is a truer reflection of the kind of spectacles we should expect from Daniel Farke’s side.
Norwich’s match with Arsenal at the weekend was an end-to-end affair and I expect a similar encounter on the South Coast on Wednesday night.
BTTS itself is a little short at around 4/7 but adding Over 2.5 Goals to the bet is 9/10 with Bet365, which looks like decent value to me. It has landed in 25 of Southampton’s 43 (58%) matches under Hassenhutl and given the volume of goals Norwich have conceded this term, I fancy it to become 26 of 44 by Wednesday night.
Best Bets
Chelsea v Aston Villa – Chelsea to win and Both Teams To Score (8/5 Boylesports)
Southampton v Norwich – Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals (9/10 Bet365)
