DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) is back in his regular Saturday 3pm slot to deliver his best bet verdicts from the Premier League.
Bournemouth v Norwich | Saturday 19th October 2019, 15:00
Having backed – and latterly regretted it – Norwich this season, I am opposing the side from East Anglia for the first time. While I don’t feel that the 5-1 defeat against Aston Villa was a fair reflection of the game (most stats suggested Villa deserved to win by a single goal), Norwich’s injury list hugely concerning and you cannot escape the fact that this is a side that had problems defensively at Championship level.
To date this season, Daniel Farke’s side have played four away matches and lost each by two goals or more. A part of me believes that they are due some luck on their travels as while they have been the inferior side in each encounter, they definitely deserve to have scored more than the single goal.
Ultimately, I believe that Bournemouth will win this game but I do not trust them to keep a clean sheet. They are yet to do that in eight games this season and even if you exclude their results against the Big Six, Both Teams To Score has landed in 34 of their 55 matches (62%) since they were promoted to the Premier League.
However, I do believe that the Dorset side will win the game but the 15/8 Betfair are offering on a home win and both sides finding the net certainly takes my fancy.
Leicester v Burnley | Saturday 19th October 2019, 15:00
There are few bigger Brendan Rodgers fans than me but I did find it quite comical when he suggested that Leicester deserved at least a point against Liverpool. Leicester managed just two shots in that game – their single shot on-target resulted in a goal – and lost the Expected Goals (xG) around 3.5 to 0.1.
That being said, The Foxes have a talented squad and while they may have overperformed their statistics to date, given the performances of Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United so far his season, they have to be genuine contenders for a top four position.
I do believe that they will win this game against Burnley but whenever I watch Sean Dyche’s side I can see why the defy the expected goals stats. They concede very few clear chances and put the ball in to the box at every opportunity and in Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes have a physical presence up front.
I was tempted to back a Leicester victory and both sides to score but the 21/20 with Matchbook on simply taking the BTTS angle is a far simpler bet. Under Rodgers, BTTS has landed in 10 of Leicester’s 18 (56%) matches and since the start of last season, it has obliged in 25 of Burnley’s 46 matches.
So far this season, Burnley have scored at Arsenal, Wolves, Brighton and Aston Villa and had 48 shots across those games. They’ve conceded in each of those encounters too, which gives me plenty of confidence about this bet. I will also back the 1-1 and 2-1 (home victory) scorelines myself.
Best Bets
Bournemouth v Norwich – Bournemouth to win and Both Teams To Score (15/8 Betfair)
Leicester v Burnley – Both Teams To Score (21/20 Matchbook)
