Premier League Betting Tips: Cards key in derby dust-up


VALUE-HUNTER Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his best bets from Wednesday night's Premier League contests.

West Ham vs Brighton | Wednesday 1st December 2021, 19:30 | Amazon

Much has been made of Brighton fans booing their side after a 0-0 draw with Leeds at the weekend, and rightly so in my book. Brighton had almost completely outplayed their opponents, managed 20 shots on goal and finished the game in ninth place in the Premier League, which surely represents a good start to the season for The Seagulls.

Brighton once again showed their profligacy in front of goal in that encounter and 12 goals from 13 games is a concern. However, they face an opponent who they have never lost to in the Premier League and Brighton have scored in all eight matches against The Hammers in this competition.

The last five encounters between these two have seen both teams find the net and West Ham have become one of the most entertaining sides in the league under David Moyes. Five of their six home matches this term have seen both sides oblige and with those stats in mind, I like the look of the 10/11 Bet365 are offering on both teams scoring.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City | Wednesday 1st December 2021, 19:30 | Amazon

Villa are certainly tighter at the back under Steven Gerrard, with The Villains conceding just one goal in 180 minutes against Brighton and Crystal Palace and generally limiting their opponents chances.

However, as Gerrard alluded to after that game, City are a tougher test, despite the volume of injuries that Pep Guardiola has mentioned. One man who is definitely available for The Citizens is Ilkay Gundogan and I like the 13/5 Paddy Power are offering on the German international scoring at Villa Park.

Gundogan has been a goalscoring phenomenon over the last couple of seasons, managing 16 goals in 37 league matches. He has recorded 22 shots this term (only Gabriel Jesus and Joao Cancelo have recorded more for City) and his total xG of 4.27 is the highest in Pep’s side.

With so many attacking options missing for City, Gundogan will be expected to remain a threat. He responded by scoring against West Ham last weekend and I think there is far more than a 28% chance that he does so against Villa tonight.

Everton vs Liverpool | Wednesday 1st December 2021, 20:15 | Amazon

What do you need for a feisty derby? A referee who gives cards out like confetti? Well, we have one here with Paul Tierney in charge of the Merseyside derby.

Tierney has brandished 35 yellow cards in nine matches this season and of the ten officials who have refereed at least seven Premier League matches, only Andre Marriner and Anthony Taylor have got their cards out at a more frequent rate.

Frequent foulers like Allan and Fabian Delph are shorter than 5/2 to be carded but it is Lucas Digne at 15/4 with BetVictor who gets my vote. Only Allan has committed more fouls for Everton than Digne’s total of 15, while the Frenchman has also been carded three times in 12 matches.

He is likely to be up against Mo Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold on Everton’s left-hand side, so last ditch tackles are going to be likely and with a referee who doesn’t need a second invitation to get his cards out, I think we are getting excellent value here.

Best Bets

West Ham vs Brighton – Both Teams To Score (10/11 Bet365)

Aston Villa vs Manchester City – Ilkay Gundogan to score anytime (13/5 Paddy Power)

Everton vs Liverpool – Lucas Digne to be booked (15/4 BetVictor)

About Author

I have loved numbers and sport throughout my life, so betting was a natural step. I started writing my own betting column at university and have continued throughout my adult life. I bet on football, golf and the NFL mainly but two flies going up a wall could also capture my attention. I am a West Brom fan and also follow teams in other sports but I think it's fair to say that no side compare with The Baggies!

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