SATURDAY 3pm Premier League kick-offs are back on the agenda and we asked value hunter Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) to share his favourite fancies from MD7.
Leeds vs Watford | Saturday 2nd October 2021. 15:00
Despite there being four 3pm matches this weekend, all my tips come from the game at Elland Road. In the other matches, Chelsea to win and under 3.5 goals did appeal, I feel like Burnley are due a win but hard to justify backing them at odds on and Wolves and Newcastle are two sides I struggle to predict.
My first angle here is Leeds to win and both teams to score. That is available at 12/5 with Bet365, which looks huge to me given that they are odds on to win the actual game. Leeds have drawn three and lost three to date this term and conceded 14 goals in the process.
While eight of those goals were against Manchester United and Liverpool, they’ve conceded in each of their other matches, two against Everton and West Ham and a solitary strike against both Burnley and Newcastle.
Last season, nine of Leeds 18 victories saw both sides find the net, including five of their eight home successes. Overall, they conceded 54 times last season so these defensive frailties are not a new phenomenon.
BTTS has only obliged in three of Watford’s league games this season but the three games that didn’t were against Brighton, Tottenham and Wolves, all of whom tend to see a lot fewer goals than Leeds matches. In their last two matches they conceded 20 shots in a 1-1 draw with Newcastle, while they allowed 12 against bottom dwellers Norwich the previous week so their defence is hardly immovable.
With the likes of Raphinha, Patrick Bamford and Rodrigo among their ranks, I think Leeds will have too much for their opponents, but there is little to suggest they’ll keep a clean sheet, so I am happy to take Leeds to win and BTTS at 12/5 with Bet365.
Talking of Raphinha, the Brazilian is 5/2 with Paddy Power to find the net and that is far too big a price given that he has three goals to his name already this term and Leeds are playing their easiest match – according to the prices – to date.
While he is outperforming his expected goals (the goal against Newcastle was slightly fortunate), he has had 19 shots in his six matches and I expect that average of over three per game to continue here. With his skill and finishing ability, I think he will score double figures this term and add to his tally on Saturday afternoon.
For my final bet, I am adding a cards angle. I did consider Mohammed Salisu and Ashley Barnes to get a card but given that Leeds and Watford are the two worst offenders in this regard it would be silly not to try to find a player in this encounter. Leeds six matches have seen 30 cards this term, Watford’s have seen 29 and cases could be made for a number of players, including Kalvin Phillips and Liam Cooper.
However, given that I expect Leeds to dominate proceedings, it is a Watford player I think is best value. That player is Emmanuel Dennis, who is 7/2 with Paddy Power.
Dennis has committed more fouls (17) than any other player in the Premier League this season and his three bookings from six league games could well be more. The all-action forward is sure to be involved in many tussles throughout the afternoon and hopefully he will end up in referee Simon Hooper’s notebook.
Best Bets
Leeds vs Watford – Leeds to win and Both Teams To Score (12/5 Bet365)
Leeds vs Watford – Raphinha to score (5/2 Paddy Power)
Leeds vs Watford – Emmanuel Dennis to be booked (7/2 Paddy Power)
