In our pre-tournament team guides we suggested Greece will aim to keep things tight at the back but bookmakers appear to be going a tad overboard in their 2/5 quotes about Under 2.5 Goals in Friday’s curtain-raiser. And they’re right. A goal-heavy tournament opener doesn’t appear to be on the cards with both teams looking likely to operate similar systems; a tight, cagey encounter looks to be on the cards.
2004 champions Greece leaked just five goals in qualifying and after upsetting Portugal on the opening night of Euro 2004, Fernando Santos’ men look well equipped to again spoil the co-hosts party. Unbeaten in 10 qualifiers, Greece collected 24 points from a possible 30 to top Group F ahead of Croatia and that pedigree should stand them in good stead to at least avoid defeat in Warsaw.
Poland’s friendly results have been unconvincing, Franciszek Smuda’s side are under immense pressure from the home nations support to deliver and few hosts make winning starts at the Euros – in fact six of the tournament hosts since 1988 have failed to take three points in their first match.
So while Under 2.5 Goals is too short, Under 1.5 Goals offers options but your best bet is to get with Greece while keeping the draw onside. Take Greece in the double chance market at 11/13 with BWin.
Trends to keep an eye on –
- 7 of Greece’s 10 qualifiers featured Under 2.5 Goals.
- Greece were the lowest scorers to qualify for Euro 2012
- Only 4 of Robert Lewandowski’s 14 goals for Poland have come in competitive action. They came against San Marino and Singapore.