Sunday evening sees Poland face Colombia in Kazan. Glenn Scurfield (@GScurfTrader) highlights the best betting opportunities.
Poland v Colombia | Sunday 24th June 2018, 19:00 | ITV
Poland will have considered themselves unlucky in Tuesday's 2-1 defeat to Senegal as a freak own goal was followed by a controversial Mbaye Niang goal.
The Eagles lost just once in qualification en-route to topping their group, and were only eliminated in the quarter-finals of Euro 2016 on penalties to the eventual winners, Portugal. They must be respected.
Colombia's tournament began in disastrous fashion. After just three minutes they were one down and reduced to 10 men. Results thus far mean Jose Pekerman's unit has no room for error in the remaining two group games.
James Rodriguez wasn't fit enough to start against Japan, but his presence could prove vital should he return. Along with Juan Cuadrado and Radamel Falcao, James can complete a capable attack.
Goals at a premium
The Match Odds indicate Poland have a 28.57% of victory, with Colombia holding the tag of favourites. Poland have gone-off a similar price in previous games, such as their clashes with Denmark, Portugal and Ireland.
Based on historical prices, there is a spot of value in the 4/5 (Boylesports) about Under 2.5 Goals. The average closing price across the three mentioned games stands at around 8/13. If history repeats itself, then would could see some late money opposing goals.
To reinforce any edge, it makes sense to analyse Colombia's past. Across games against the USA, Bolivia, and Uruguay, Under 2.5 has gone off at an average price of 7/10.
The 4/5 available is something we can take advantage of given the research. It's a game neither side can afford to lose.
Poland v Colombia – Under 2.5 Goals (4/5 Boylesports)