MATCHDAY 29 of Bundesliga continues on Sunday evening as Paderborn host Borussia Dortmund. Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) shares his research.
Paderborn v Borussia Dortmund | Sunday 31st May 2020, 17:00 | BT Sport
Defeat in Der Klassiker has all but ended Dortmund’s title dreams. The gap was extended to seven points between the top two, now they have to fend off RB Leipzig, who are on their coattails. Tuesday’s loss came at a further cost with Erling Braut Håland and Mo Dahoud both picking up knee injuries, which will rule them off for varying lengths of time.
Talk suggests Thorgan Hazard will lead the line in a 3-4-3, which could Lucien Favre give Jadon Sancho a place in the starting XI.
Paderborn prop up the Bundesliga table and haven’t won in nine league games – that’s the same number of points they are adrift of the relegation play-off. Here at the Benteler-Arena, they haven’t won since before Christmas when they saw off Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1. In their 14 home games, they've netted in 13 with the only blank coming against Augsburg – and they drew another against that side on Wednesday (0-0).
Dortmund getting the job done
Die Schwarzgelben did what they needed to when they won at Wolfsburg last weekend. Their second goal came on the break when transitioning and that’s where they pose plenty of problems. In that game, they finished with an Expected Goals count of 0.91xG, so not as free-flowing as usual against stubborn opposition.
With the injuries taking their toll on Favre’s side, it’s a case of second-guessing their line-up with Hazard the likely frontman. But we did see Favre name Gio Reyna in the starting XI against Schalke before his injury in the warm-up, so there could be a curveball.
Looking back on their data before the break, their away xG tallies have been consistent. It was inferior against Gladbach, but they picked up the three points (Gladbach 2.60xG v 1.24xG Dortmund), while against Bremen they hit 1.33xG.
Those in yellow score around two goals per away game on average. Their last three away wins have all seen under four goals, while four of their last five wins, in general, have also gone under that bar.
Taking an away win and under four goals at 6/4 in the Bet365 Bet Builder looks a rather attractive play.
Don’t discount the hosts
As noted above, Paderborn have scored in 13 of their 14 home games this season, so they will pose Dortmund a few problems. Steffen Baumgart will be looking to former Norwich man Dennis Srbeny for more goals. He’s taken his tally to five since re-joining the club. He’s netted in their last three home games.
I did some digging around some Paderborn stats and there’s something that caught my eye in the team shots on target market. We can get for the hosts to have 4+ on target, but the bookies have priced this up a bit differently. For example, Sky Bet go 8/11 with Betfair 5/4.
Of the current top-six, Paderborn have played four of them at home. Here is their shots data in those games:
- v Bayern – seven shots, five on target
- v RB Leipzig – seven shots, four on target
- v Bayer Leverkusen – 10 shots, seven on target
- v Wolfsburg – 10 shots, seven on target
I’m concentrating on the shots on target here, so in those games against the top-six, they’ve hit that magic four count. Plus, in the reverse fixture at Signal Iduna Park, they had eight shots with four on target – another tick in the box.
Despite the obvious gulf in class and the lack of a home crowd, taking the odds-against price on Paderborn testing Roman Bürki four or more times is another angle to have on-side.