NFL Tips | Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos | 29th December 2015

TOM Selwyn (@tom_selwyn) returns with a bet for Monday night NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos | Tuesday 01:30 | Sky Sports 1

I’m not sure I can remember a more important match to be contested by two backup QBs, but this is what we have in Denver on Monday night when AJ McCarron’s Bengals take on the Brock Osweiler’s Broncos.

This is a particularly tough one to call given the inexperience of both players at the game’s most important position, so I’ll be looking at a player bet centred around Bengals RB Giovani Bernard instead. I’m backing him to have over 55.5 rushing & receiving yards in this one.

Bernard has been a very consistent performer this season and is definitely one of the best pass-catching RBs in the league, as well as being an underrated runner of the ball.

56 yards via both the ground and the air seems an eminently makeable total for a player of Bernard’s calibre, even against Denver’s superb defence (they are currently 1st against both the run and the pass). Indeed, he has managed to go over that total in 11 out of 14 games.

Given they’re going against this top rated Bronco defence with an inexperienced QB, you could see the Bengals call a number of screens to try and get McCarron some confidence and these are likely to go Bernard’s way.

This, combined with the fact that Denver’s secondary isn’t going to provide too many easy reads, forcing McCarron into check down passes to RBs and TEs, should hopefully we see Bernard get a lot of touches in this game.

And finally, a little extra for those of you who like a bet based on ineptitude: The Broncos have been shut out in the 2nd half for three straight games. Since 1990, only three teams have been shut out in the 2nd half of four straight games (2003 Giants, 1999 49ers, 1991 Colts). If you reckon this will happen again, backing the Bengals to be the 2nd half winner seems like a decent shout at Evens with PaddyPower!