NFL Tips | 6th December 2015


IT'S Week 13 in the NFL and the race for the play-offs is hotting up. Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67) looks at the games for us.

Arizona Cardinals @ St Louis Rams | Sunday 18:00

It's always a given in NFL betting as with most sports, you have to check the stats. If you did that here, there is a danger you would risk your house on Arizona.

The 1st ranked offence in the NFL, paired with the number four defence plays a St Louis Rams team that is currently ranked last or near last in passing and total offence.

Oh if only the NFL were that straightforward. Thankfully it never is. The Rams were dominated in the reverse fixture and walked away with the win.

There is a difference though. That was when Todd Gurley was being talked about as not just the best rookie RB in the League but the NFLs best RB full stop. At that point Gurley was averaging well over 100 yards a week. In the last few weeks, he is down to just 43.

The Cardinals are easily the better team here but they are capable of a bad performance here and there. The Rams are in a mess at the moment and this weeks NAP must be Cardinals -3.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sunday 18:00

Can you believe it? The two teams that have caused me more pain than any others meet in Florida. I managed to catch Atlanta right last week. In that I tipped Minnesota against them and got the win. I also confidently tipped Tampa to win in Indy. Oh well.

I'm sticking with one part of the formula, Falcons to lose. Atlanta started the season 5-0. In the six games since 1-5. Devonta Freeman out, Tevin Coleman not the safest ball carrier, Matt Ryan turning the ball over regularly and when Julio Jones is double teamed there is nowhere else to throw the ball.

I think Jameis Winston is the best of the rookie quarterbacks but like all rookies he has not been too consistent. The guy has not been helped by Mike Evans and others dropping the ball regulary. I wrote a few weeks ago that Doug Martin was always capable of a 200 yard game and he went for 240 that same day.

The Bucs have the tools to get the job done no doubt. The problem they have is in the red zone. Far too many drives last week and throughout the season have ended in field goals.

I have to go with the Bucs here. Atlanta have shown no signs of a recovery in form whilst Tampa are always capable of putting 40 points on the board. Tampa -1 with Titanbet.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders | Sunday 21:05

I can't help seeing this game in a similar way to the first. Oakland are certainly not as bad as St Louis on offence nor are Kansas as good as Arizona in any way. However, it is a case of a good team in great form against a fairly bad team in bad form.

Who would have thought that when everyone's favourite fantasy pick Jamaal Charles was ruled out for the season, that the Chiefs would actually get better. Charles was the Kansas Offence.

Remember they went over a year without a touchdown from a wide receiver. Alex Smith is back to being a very competent if not spectacular quarterback. I still don't understand Maclin being released by Philladelphia and he's a regular in my team each week and this.

Travis Kelce is one of the top 3 tight ends in the game and Kansas found not just one replacement for Charles with Charkandrick West but when he went down, another in Spencer Ware.

I really like Derek Carr and he does have some weapons out wide. This could be a high scoring affair but the Chiefs rank 7th on Total Defence and I can't see Oakland being able to score enough to get the home win. Chiefs -3 with Ladbrokes at 21/20 will do nicely.

Best Bets

Arizona Cardinals @ St Louis Rams – Arizona -3 (10/11 Skybet)

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Tampa Bay -1 (11/10 Titanbet)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders – Kansas City Chiefs -3 (13/10 Titanbet)

About Author

I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

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