NFL Tips | 24th September 2016 | Sky Sports


NFL Sundays are now underway so we asked American Football anorak Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67) to pick out hisbest bets.

Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills | Sunday 18.00

It's upstate New York for our first game this week and an undoubted NAP.

Buffalo were (once again) supposed to finally have joined the party and this was the year Rex Ryan proved all the doubters wrong. He even brought his brother in to coach a defence that was full of talent but not showing it too often on the field.

This is the same brother who was responsible for two of the most underachieving defensive units of recent years in New Orleans and Dallas. Guess what? The Bills have been leaking points and yards whilst losing very winnable games.

The obvious solution when you can't even stop a New York Jets team from taking you apart? Fire the offensive coordinator. Obviously.

Buffalo have problems on the other side of the ball, no doubt. Tyrod Taylor has not improved as expected by many good judges. LeSean McCoy is getting less effective by the game and injuries are hampering the progress (and Fantasy points damnit) of Sammy Watkins.

This unit is not exactly hitting the heights but they did enough last time out only to be let down badly when the Bills were demolished by Matt Forte and a big of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Substitute Fitz and Forte for Carson Palmer and David Johnson and you can see that Buffalo has a problem this week.

The Cardinals come here after taking Tampa apart at home. Johnson in particular should have a huge game.

Two-hundred-and-seventy-five combined yards in his first two games is a sign of things to come and Arizona have been a standout pick for this game all week.

I was fairly delighted to see -3.5 (1/1 Paddy Power) widely available and believe that is an absolute steal. If the Bills couldn't handle Eric Decker, then Larry Fitzgerald still improving at 32 and heading towards the Hall of Fame, could have a field day.

There is real balance to this Arizona offence and I expect nothing less than a big win.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers | Sunday 18.00

Hands up and a round of applause if you did not fall for the annual ‘Green Bay are going to really impress this year because they have Aaron Rodgers' hype machine.

Two games in is a possibly a silly time to make too many judgements but if they weren't in a division with Chicago and Detroit and a Vikings team shorn of its star QB and RB, then the Pack would really struggle to make the post season this time.

The biggest question in America right now is not who's going to stop that idiot Trump, but what the hell is wrong with Aaron Rodgers.

You could kind of forgive last season when Jordy Nelson was lost to injury and Eddie Lacy to too much fried chicken.

The loss of Nelson hit especially hard as it seemed to mean that all of a sudden every other receiver was covered. Randall Cobb, James Jones and the like just could not get open once the number one guy was gone.

Lacey's weight issues meant that James Starks could pop the odd 100-yard game but most had ball security issues. Easy to feel sorry for Rodgers.

Well fast-forward to the 2016 season and Nelson is healthy, although Lacy is still a lump, but not much seems to have changed.

Nelson has grabbed a couple of touchdowns but nothing that makes you think he's going to break any records. Rodgers may break a few but not good ones.

After two starts, he ranks 31st in a yards-per-attempt with an average of 5.8. Stats like that are generally a sign of the apocalypse. See you on the other side people.

Detroit are just… well, Detroit. Stafford is OK. Anquan Boldin, Golden Tate are OK. Theo Riddick is an ok second string running back but the dual loss of Ameer Abdullah and Donte Moncrief will hurt an already average offensive unit.

I think Green Bay will win this game just but I don't have enough faith in them to actually risk any money – no, the value here is in the points market where under 47.5 looks to be an absolute lock.

It's one of those games that looks high scoring on paper but in reality I think there will be an awful lot of work for punters and kickers in Wisconsin.

Best Bets

Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills – Arizona Cardinals -3.5 (1/1 Paddy Power)

Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills – Arizona Cardinals to score Over 3.5 touchdowns (13/8 Bet365)

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers – Under 47.5 points (68/67 Marathon)

About Author

I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

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