NFL Tips | 22nd November 2015


THE end of the regular season is approaching. Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67) is on the hunt for winners on Sunday. What do you think of his picks?

Tampa Bay Bucaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles | Sunday 18:00

Philly let so many of us down last week. The loss of Sam Bradford was a killer for them and along with Running Back Ryan Matthews he misses out here. That opens up some interesting areas for betting in this game. I really like Jameis Winston for Tampa but Mike Evans (when he's catching not dropping balls) apart, they have few options on offence.

Doug Martin is one of those Backs that can easily have a 200 yard, three touchdown game out of nowhere but his production has dropped notably in recent weeks. When it comes to the defences, the stats are a little misleading. The Bucs rank a notable 10th overall on total defence compared to the 16th placed Eagles unit. However, whilst Philly are giving up 20 points per game, Tampa is surrendering an average of 26.

Neither team has a stellar front seven, but I prefer both the Eagles secondary and their options on offence. I can see Chip Kelly keeping that Tampa D on the field for long stretches especially with DeMarco Murray now starting to look something like the leading rusher of last season.

Theres a voice in my head that keeps repeating Mark Sanchez, Mark Sanchez but I have to believe these Eagles are by far the better team. I will take them to cover here and also like the Paddy Power line on Murray.

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons | Sunday 18:00

Warning: We have been burned by Atlanta on four occasions this season. I cant believe I am going back to them but it's the Colts. You have to don't you? I think I would have been sorely tempted even had Andrew Luck not gone down with another serious injury.

Matt Hasselbeck did incredibly well covering for Luck earlier this season but his options are so limited. If Indy are to get anything out of this, then they will need the Frank Gore of maybe five years ago to come to the fore. Certainly not the 2015 version.

TY Hilton, Andre Johnson and Donte Moncrief are decent wideouts but with the level of protection that Indy quarterbacks have been receiving, they have not been catching anything like the number of balls you would expect.

The Colts rank a lowly 28 of 32 on total defence and face off here against Matt Ryan who despite some dodgy performance still rates as the number five quarterback in the NFL. Julio Jones is still the NFL's best wideout in my eyes and Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman give the running game some bit. I still like Atlanta in the Dome and forgive me for going with this one more time but I am finding the Skybet spread too hard to ignore.

Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins | Sunday 18:00

Oh this could come back to haunt me. Tony Romo returns which is great news for the ‘Boys. Backed by an elite defence and with great weapons such as Dez and the never-gets-old Jason Witten facing off against one of the most frustrating and inconsistent teams in the league. I am going with Dallas.

Ok, this will take some explaining. Actually, no it wont. Dallas just lost another rusher with the release of Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden looks unlikely to play but Romo had one of the best seasons of his career in 2015 and I like him to come back healthy here and find plenty to aim at downfield.

Despite how bad Miami have been at times, I love the look of Londoner (and Gooner) Jay Ajayi. He may be a name you want to play with on Fantasy Waiver Wires. I managed to pick him up in one league and Miami have stated he will see more and more of the ball as the season develops. His Rushing line of 42.5 is very tempting. Cowboys -2 at Evens will do for me here. The NFC East is going to be one close call in December.

Best Bets

Tampa Bay Bucaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles – Philadelphia -6 (20/21 Bet365)

Tampa Bay Bucaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles – DeMarco Murray Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (5/6 Paddy Power)

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons – Atlanta -3.5 (11/10 William Hill)

Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins – Dallas -2 (Evens Bet365)

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About Author

I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

1 Comment

  1. I was reading how Sanchez will play more up tempo than Bradford did but still having nightmares after what he did last week throwing into triple coverage when they only needed a FG to lead. Like the Dallas pick

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