NFL Tips | 20th September 2015


WEEK 2 of the NFL is underway but who is Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67) backing? Here he gives us his three best bets.

St Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins | Sunday 18:00

Straight in with this week's NAP. The St Louis Rams at the Washington Redskins was the first game I wrote about and St Louis -4 sailed in with a 24-0 win on the road. I'm expecting something similar this time round.

The Rams defence is what I focused on last time and they have started the season ranked by most experts as the best in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, the Washington Redskins offence is pretty awful. A match made in heaven if you intend betting on St Louis.

A 34-31 overtime win against the Seattle Seahawks is pretty impressive, although once again the play calling from Seattle on their final drive was pretty poor.

I've been backing the Rams at fancy odds for a few years now as my dark horses and they have consistently let me down. However, there is something different about this team. Jeff Fisher has built a formidable defence and special teams is making some big plays. Tavon Austin is a pretty decent draft choice if you have him.

A 3.5 point handicap is the main play here and I would also recommend St Louis Over 2.5 Touchdowns at 5/6. not much here about the ‘Skins but I just do not rate them either side of the ball.

Tampa Bay Bucaneers @ New Orleans Saints | Sunday 18:00

The Saints in the Superdome are a very different proposition than away from it. All in all, a 31-19 defeat at Arizona is no disaster. The Cardinals are a very decent team and will beat better sides this season. Drew Brees is as reliable a Quarterback as you could wish to have and Mark Ingram as lead Running Back will take the pressure of Brees.

I see this game in a similar way to the one in Washington, in that Tampa Bay are another awful team. They were taken apart at home last week by the Tenessee Titans. Yup, the Titans. Against a Quarterback making his first ever NFL start who went and broke all kinds of records against them by tossing 4 TDs in the first half.

Tampa also had a QB making his debut, the number 1 pick in the draft Jameis Winston. Whilst Mariota threw a TD on his first series, Winston threw an interception with his first attempt and things did not get much better.

As with the Redskins, the Tampa defence is as bad as it gets. Betting the spread in the NFL can be a dangerous thing when it's high (-10 in this case).

Not that the Saints will not win easily, I think they will, but a team 14-20 points up in the 4th Quarter can easily concede careless scores. The Bucs can put points on the board especially if Mike Evans is back. Over 47 is where I would prefer to go here. I cannot see Drew throwing less than 4 TDs.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | Sunday 18:00 | Sky Sports 2

Hands up who thought Buffalo would get blown away by Indy last week. Yeah, me too. Well to be honest, it was Indy that got blown away.

TT under centre looked the real deal, the defence gave Andrew Luck a torrid time. Is this the start of something special in upstate New York? I'm not so sure about that. The Colts were ordinary at best, losing TY Hilton and Frank Gore in the 2nd Half really did not help.

Opening weekend can throw up some odd results and it certainly did this year. Remember Rule 1 of the NFL? Never bet against the Pats. Tom Brady has played Buffalo 26 times in his career and has beaten them on 23 occasions.

I thought New England were more than impressive against Pittsburgh on opening night. A seven point win would have been much bigger but for a garbage time score from the Steelers killing many a -7 Handicap bet.

So what will Rex try against Brady this time? Stack the box and force LeGarret Blount to play a much bigger part is what I expect but maybe Brady will pick them apart in a manner that Andrew Luck is not yet capable of. Brady, Gronk, Blount. The Patriots are the class act here and at -1 you just have to play don't you?

Best Bets

St Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins – St Louis -3.5 (21/20 BetVictor)

St Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins – St Louis Over 2.5 TD's (9/10 BWin)

Tampa Bay Bucaneers @ New Orleans Saints – Over 47 Points (20/21 BetVictor)

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills – New England -1 (20/21 BetVictor)

About Author

I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

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