NFL Tips | 1st November 2015


NFL nut Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67) is back with his three best bets from Sunday's action.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns | Sunday 18.00

There are some match-ups between obviously good and obviously bad teams where you can see the result going against form and in some cases logic.

When the outcome of a game looks this obvious, I probably research it more than I normally would, looking for an angle I may have missed. I can't believe anyone out there could think Cleveland can get anything from this game.

A few stats? The Browns rank a lowly 28th of 32 on total defence. Not what you want when the Cardinals sit fourth on total offence.

I think I said in pre-season that the only difference between Arizona and a potential Super Bowl contender was a fit Carson Palmer. Well, Palmer has been fit all season; Chris Johnson has reappeared from absolutely nowhere.

With a receiving core of almost stud receivers in Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and a fit again Floyd, this has to be a healthy win for Bruce Arians team. I’ll gladly take them on at -6 handicap at 20/21 (Ladbrokes).

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints | Sunday 18.00

Another stats obsessed pick here and another that really stands out. Drew Brees and Eli Manning seem to have no issues putting points on the board – great news for a points based bet.

But what stands out is that, whilst neither side is having a disastrous season, the defences are ranked a lowly 29th and 30th on total yards/points allowed.

The obvious angle is overs on Total Points. The line currently stands at 49.5. I am pretty confident that will land but in the Dome with neither side known for long drives, I have a slightly riskier but much more attractive pick.

New Orleans to score in every quarter is an outstanding 5/2 with Bet365. I’m very positive that Brees can move the chains at speed and will keep the scoreboard ticking.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons | Sunday 18.00

Now this should be a game. At first glance, it's an easy win for the red hot 6-1 Falcons and that may well end up being the case. After all, this game last year ended with Atlanta sticking 50 points on the Buccaneers.

My pick here takes that game into account, as it would not surprise if this also saw points. Maybe not as many as the 70 of 2014, but as this is more competitive.

There are offensive weapons on both sides are in great form. The Bucs are certainly not the worst team in the NFL (as some predicted, mostly me) and are in pretty good form right now.

Doug Martin, another running back, who kind of disappeared for a year, has been smashing it in recent weeks. Mike Evans gives the rookie QB a great weapon out wide. Against a fairly generous Falcons defence, Tampa Bay can certainly put points on the board.

Atlanta certainly have no issues on offence. Matt Ryan is maturing into a top quality QB, whilst the hottest player in the entire NFL, Devonta Freeman, just keeps getting it done. And is there a better receiver than Julio Jones?

Keeping it simple here and playing the overs. Over 48 points is 10/11 at Bet365.

Best Bets

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns – Arizona Cardinals -6 handicap (20/21 Ladbrokes)

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints – New Orleans Saints to score in every Quarter (5/2 Bet365)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons – Over 48 points (10/11 Bet365)

About Author

I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

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