NFL Tips | 16th October 2016 | Sky Sports


NFL Sundays are well underway so we asked boff Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67) to pick out his best bets.

San Francisco @ Buffalo Bills | Sunday 18.00

Let me throw a few stats at you in – no, actually let me insult San Francisco a bit first. T

he Niners come here off the back of a reasonable (but losing) performance at home to a relatively misfiring Arziona Cardinals team. Blaine Gabbert, the as-far-from-elite-as-it-gets, quarterback has been benched.

This is where it gets good. In place of Gabbert, we will have the pleasure of witnessing the return of Colin Kaepernick to his rightful place. That place being in charge of a team that will be getting first pick in next year’s draft (probably).

Kaepernick is now more famous for taking a knee during the national anthem than he is for his skills on a football field. Well that, an incredible regression from losing the Super Bowl to Baltimore and some of the worst hair seen in professional sport.

San Fran are dreadful. No doubt about it. Bringing in Chip Kelly as head coach has made little or no difference and I think the Bills take this game quite easily.

Now the stats bit. Le Sean McCoy currently ranks fourth in the NFL amongst running backs with an average of 89.4 yards per-game. He faces the second worst run defence in the NFL who give up an average of 146.8 yards per-game.

The San Francisco defence faces the third best rushing offence in the NFL and yet Paddy Power are offering a line of just 78.5 on Shady McCoy – that’s my NAP of the week and possibly of the season.

Buffalo do not split carries, this is all on Shady and I would expect a hot Buffalo defence to do its job against an offence that ranks 31 of 32 in the NFL.

Expect a comfortable Bills win. The line of -8 (22/23 Marathon) looks fairly generous and seems another reasonable play this week. We have certainly been in for a season of shocks and I seem to have found THE most shocking on a regular basis but surely not this week.

San Francisco back to California on the back of a hammering. If only Sammy Watkins was fit for my fantasy team.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins | Sunday 18.00

Everything I wrote about the 49ers-Bills game, I could quite happily copy and paste here with just a couple of name changes.

A dreadful defence up against an offence that has got better with every game this season. Big Ben and his array of offensive weapons have not always been the most consistent but have caught fire in the last few weeks.

The return of LeVeon Bell has given opposing defences new problems as they cannot afford to stack the box too heavily whilst defending the deep ball threat of Antonio Brown, Marcus Wheaton and many, many others.

Sammie Coates has been a wonderful surprise for Coach Tomlin and this really could be the Steelers year.

Miami, despite huge investment in a star-studded defence, continues to struggle. On those rare days where they dominate as their salaries say they should, the offensive line is so porous that Ryan Tannehil has taken 17 sacks and turned the ball over with alarming regularity.

The Dolphins main struggles this Sunday however will certainly be of defence. Some of the worst corners in the NFL taking on one of the biggest arms in football and receivers that will look like a blur to them. Expect a big day if you are lucky enough to own Antonio in any fantasy leagues.

In betting terms, this has a big Steelers win written all over it and I am happy to take on Pittsburgh with a 7-point handicap at 19/20 (BetBright).

I would expect Bell to have another big game. He came up 10 yards short for us last week and whilst he will almost certainly have a huge game, I would not be too keen on lines of 100 yards plus, even against Miami.

The Steelers just have far too many weapons downfield against a secondary that will have its hands full.

Best Bets

San Francisco @ Buffalo Bills – Buffalo Bills-8 handicap (22/23 Marathon)

San Francisco @ Buffalo Bills – LeSean McCoy over 78.5 rushing yards (10/11 Paddy Power)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins – Pittsburgh Steelers -7 handicap (19/20 BetBright)

About Author

I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

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