NFL Tips | 14th December 2014


ANOTHER profitable week for Tom Selwyn last week (@tom_selwyn). The great man is back with three more NFL weekend picks exclusively for WeLoveBetting.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants | Sunday 18:00

I’ll be keeping it simple here – both teams have nothing to play for at this point in the season but one team just got shut out at home, while the other went on the road and stomped all over their opponent. I’ll be backing the team that is still fighting; it's Giants -6.5 in this one.

The Redskins are in turmoil it’s fair to say. The QB they mortgaged their future for in Robert Griffin has not looked anything but a bust since his injuries and going into this game they appear to be waiting on the fitness of their third-string QB Colt McCoy before declaring a starter.

That is an awful situation to be in. Colt McCoy is what he is, and that’s a back-up to third-string QB that you really don’t want to be relying on to win games. This smacks of Washington having shut it down for the season really.

On the flip-side, as shown in a beat-down of the Titans last week, you will never see a Tom Coughlin led side quit. They also aren’t relying on a third-string QB, as they have a two-time Super Bowl MVP QB. And have I mentioned Odell Beckham? That guy is special. The last six weeks he hasn’t gained less than 90 yards.

I'm definitely backing the team that has by far the better QB, and seems to actually still be fighting his season. That's the Giants!

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns | Sunday 18:00 | Sky Sports 1

Speaking of QBs… it’s finally Johnny Manziel time in Cleveland. Some are saying it’s long overdue, some are saying it’s too late. Me? I’ll be backing Cincinnati.

Manziel may well provide a spark to the Cleveland offense that is in desperate need of one (Brian Hoyer hadn’t thrown a TD in a month), but he is still a rookie and rookie QBs have not lit the world on fire this season. And besides, how long will the spark last?

Playing QB is hard – how well does he know the offense? Will he be able to change protections and plays at the line? You also have to remember that Hoyer beat Manziel for the starting job in the pre-season.

The Bengals gave up a lot of yards to the Steelers last week (perhaps they should have dressed in Jets or Bucs uniforms?) but the Steelers offense, when they put it all together, is easily one of the best in the league. Cleveland’s, quite simply, is not.

You can also point to the Cleveland win earlier in the season, but this is not the same Bengals team – they are much healthier. They will have RB Gio Bernard back in this one and, more importantly, WR A.J. Green is back to full fitness. With Green healthy, it really opens up the Bengals offense.

I think this will be a close game, but I believe Cincinnati will start the Manziel era off with a loss.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens | Sunday 18:00

I think it’s fair to say that the Jaguars are a mess defensively this season, but especially so against the run. To that end I’ll be looking for Ravens RB Justin Forsett to have over 80.5 rushing yards against them.

Forsett has really taken to the Ravens zone-read rushing attack under Gary Kubiak and in the last four games, he has over 100 yards rushing in three of them. The only time he didn't was last week against Miami when he was clearly playing hurt – and even then he managed to pile up 71 yards on limited carries.

This week he’ll be going up against a Jacksonville team that is currently ranked 28th in the league against the run, giving up 132.5 yards a game. With Forsett fully healthy this week, he should be able to take advantage of this.

Best Bets

Washington @ NY Giants – NY Giants -6.5 (10/11 Ladbrokes)

Cincinnati @ Cleveland – Cincinnati to win (Evens BetVictor)

Jacksonville @ Baltimore – Justin Forsett Over 80.5 Yards Rushing (10/11 Skybet)

About Author

Tom got into betting after taking a marketing role at Sportingbet in 2009. He's since moved on to IT, but has remained within the industry. His passion in both betting and watching is the NFL, but also follows many other sports. Other interests include rock music, following the Patriots and being confused as to which Nottingham Forest team will show up each week.

1 Comment

  1. Sound argumenta as always. I’ll be taking 2 of these picks to complement my own. I’m afraid I have an aversion now to backing Andy Dalton once it gets past the start of December – but the Browns must know there post-season hopes are fading too and they aren’t carrying any momentum towards the end of the regular season. Good luck everyone!!

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