NFL Tips | 18th September 2016 | Sky Sports


NFL Sundays are now underway so we asked boff Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67) to pick out hisbest bets.

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants | Sunday 18.00

Betting on totals in NFL games has usually proved profitable in the past and this week there are a couple of match-ups that really catch the eye.

The first has to be a game which, when played in New Orleans last, was a 101-point shootout.

I am expecting only slightly less this time around so to see lines chalked up at almost half of that three-figure score had me knowing what my NAP would be from very early on.

Over 54.5 points on offer from BetBright at odds-against (21/20) should land with some ease and there are sound reasons for taking on some much higher lines.

New Orleans come here off the back of a first week performance that saw them score 34 points but lose at home after giving up 486 yards of offence to the wonderfully entertaining Oakland Raiders.

These Saints, under the wonderful record-breaking Drew Brees, sure can put some points on the board quickly but they also give up an awful lot going the other way.

The Giants enter another season led by the criminally underrated Eli Manning, who this time out has one of his best set of receiving options in a career that already includes two Super Bowl victories.

I don't see New York having a team capable of that level of football but Manning sure has enough to put up big scores against defences as porous as the one he faces this Sunday.

I would have expected the Giants defence to be a little stronger than showed against Dallas last week. True, they did not give up a touchdown through the air but still conceded 227 passing yards to a rookie quarterback.

Drew Brees is capable of putting 500 yards on almost any team in the NFL and I would expect the Giants cornerbacks and secondary in general to have a reasonably tough night.

Brandin Cooks will look to follow up his 98-yard touchdown against the Raiders.

Victor Cruz made a nice comeback last week with a score and 34 yards from four catches. With double coverage almost inevitable for Odell Beckham Junior, Cruz could get another chance to perform a salsa in the end zone and 3/1 offered by SkyBet on him scoring at anytime looks very generous when he is 13/10 in places.

Atlanta Falcons @ Oakland Raiders | Sunday 21.25

The Raiders were my surprise team for the AFC in pre-season, featured last week, and are here once again. I kind of like this team.

There is so much about the Raiders that is positive, not least of which is Derek Carr and his offence.

Luckily for Carr, his head coach is a man who will back his young quarterback all the way.

Jack Del Rio was responsible last week for one of the most ballsy calls I have ever seen.

One minute left on the clock in the Superdome, needing to kick an extra point to level the scores and probably take his team into overtime, Del Rio makes the (still to me) astounding decision to throw the ball into the end zone and go instead for a game winning two-point conversion – in the first game of the season.

Del Rio may well have just set the tone for this young team.

Atlanta, on the other hand, took a hammering at home from Tampa Bay, although there were positive signs for them in that defeat.

Mohammed Sanu could prove to be a quality addition to this football team. Matt Ryan is always going to find guys who get open and not always, as one follower suggested, is that guy going to be Julio.

I don't get all the criticism I see Ryan get. He's a solid quarterback who generally does all that is asked of him. It is his defence that lets this organisation down, as it did again in the opening home game of 2016.

This week the Atlanta defence faces a quarterback who avoided a sack and threw for 319 yards in New Orleans. Once again they could get taken apart and there is little to suggest anything other than any easy victory for the home team.

After conceding 31 points to Jameis Winston last week, I see more pain for a unit that has no pass rush and like the look of Oakland to score over three touchdowns at 11/8 with Bet365.

Now that Oakland has a running game to go with its young signal caller and with Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Seth Roberts all capable of beating their opponents for sheer speed, this could be a blowout.

I will also be playing Oakland to win both halves at 2/1 in a game where I expect them to simply take Atlanta apart at 2/1 (Bet365).

Best Bets

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants – Over 54.5 points (21/20 BetBright)

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants – Victor Cruz to score a touchdown at anytime (3/1 SkyBet)

Atlanta Falcons @ Oakland Raiders – Oakland to win both halves (2/1 Bet365)

Atlanta Falcons @ Oakland Raiders – Oakland to score over three touchdowns (11/8 Bet365)

Atlanta Falcons @ Oakland Raiders – Over 48.5 Points (10/11 Bet Victor)

About Author

I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

1 Comment

  1. Thanks for the mention. I am the ” follower ” who said that Matt Ryan only has eyes for Julio Jones. Little wonder guys like Roddy White went elsewhere for a sniff of the ball. Jones is a stat padder who makes most of his yards in the 2nd half when chasing.

    As for Eli Manning being ” criminally under-rated ” that is asinine. He is a turnover machine and one of the most over-rated QBs of the past 15 years. Eli Manning has 292 TDs and 242 Turnovers. There is nothing elite about those stats.

    What is truly criminal is that Eli has as many Super Bowl rings as Peyton. Peyton was an infinitely better QB than Eli.

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