NFL nut Kyle Robins (@AhhYeahKyleYeah) shares his expert opinion on the best bets ahead of Sunday's Week 14 action.
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sunday 13th December 2020, 18:00
After falling just 3 yards short of a 11/1 shot last weekend, I'm aiming to go one step further this time out, so I'm starting with what looks set to be one of the higher scoring games of the weekend.
After consecutive 27-24 home losses, Brady and the Bucs will be eager to get back into the win column, and certainly have a favourable matchup against a poor Vikings pass defence.
That being said, the Vikings will also fancy their chances in the passing game up against a Bucs D that has been absolutely shredded by wide outs in recent weeks. Tyreek took them for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns, whilst Kupp and Woods both rinsed them to the tune of 145 and 130 yards respectively.
Minnesota aren’t too much better however, giving up 271 receiving yards on average per game, whilst both teams have allowed 24 (Vikings) and 23 (Bucs) receiving touchdowns each.
I think you might be able to start seeing where I'm heading with this bet.
Now as I’ve mentioned, this looks set to be on the higher scoring side of things this weekend, and plenty of touchdowns could be on the agenda. Brady already has 28 passing touchdowns through 13 weeks, averaging just over 2 a game at home, whilst Cousins has managed 26, and has really started heating up in recent weeks, throwing for 3 touchdowns in 3 consecutive weekends running.
Thielen leads the way by a clear margin for Cousins, hauling in 12 receiving touchdowns through 13 weeks, whilst Jefferson sits behind with 7 touchdown grabs. Meaning the two have combined for 73% of Cousins touchdown passes on the season. Which is pretty mad.
On the flip side. Brady, like Cousins, certainly has his favourite endzone target, and with 11 touchdown grabs on the season, Mike Evans has coendured some chemistry with his new signal caller, especially when you consider Gronk is second in receiving touchdowns with just 4. The 6″4′ man out of Texas A&M is built to be a prime target, and I think Brady will be looking to exploit whatever matchup he draws this weekend.
Pair the two leading touchdown receivers together, and we get ourselves a tasty 7/2 shot with SkyBet.
Request-a-Bet | Sunday 13th December 2020, 18:00
Back on the request-a-bet train this weekend, and I have a slightly lesser priced bet than last time out, but just as much excitement behind it. We’re looking to wide receivers in this bet, and just like with the Bucs v Vikings matchup I looked to exploit. This bet certainly has some favourable wide out matchups involved.
It starts with Davante Adams, Keenan Allen and Stefon Diggs all hauling in 5 or more receptions. Now Adams has an extremely favourable matchup against a Detroit team that ranks 25th against opposing wide outs, whilst he’s also managed 5+ grabs in all but 1 of his 10 appearances so far this term.
Allen is also another wide out who’s seen an awful lot of receptions to date. In home games so far this season, he’s gone for 5, 16, 9, 10 & 13 receptions, and with a matchup against the Falcons 30th ranked receiver defense, Allen could be in line for a huge day.
Rounding off the first part is Diggs, who yes, does have a much tougher matchup against the Steelers in the Monday night game. The Steelers currently rank 9th against opposing wide outs, but given the sheer amount of targets Diggs receives on average (10 per game), he should certainly go over 5+. A feet which he’s achieved in 11 of his 12 games.
Now onto the second part of the bet, which consists of multiple more receivers to haul in 4 or more receptions a piece. It beings with a man who doesn’t need much introduction in Justin Jefferson.
The rookie stud has seen his target share sky rocket in recent weeks, seeing 25 targets over just the last two games combined. So in a game where the Vikings could be playing from behind, Jefferson should be primed to go over 4+ receptions. A feet he’s gone well over in 3 of his last 4 games.
Next is the Bucs slot man Chris Godwin, who’s had an injury plagued season, but causes plenty of damage when he’s on the field. Brady certainly favours the wide out, who’s seen 49 receptions in just 8 games, and has gone for 4 or more on 7 of those 8 matches. He should clear it against a poor Vikings pass D.
Third man up is Seattle’s version of Megatron in DJ Metcalf. The second-year man mountain, has taken his game to a new level this year, and with 63 receptions on 98 targets, he’s not a man Russel Wilson shy’s away from. Now whilst he has put in a few dud games in weeks 10 & 11,
Seattle is coming off an embarrassing loss to the New York Giants, so the team as a whole will be out to put on a performance. Look for Metcalf to get going early against a poor Jets pass defence.
The final receiver we’re looking to get 4+ receptions out of, is the Falcons stud second year man Calvin Ridley. The wide out has seen 59 receptions on 96 targets, and with Julio Jones ruled out this weekend, Ridleys target share should increase even more so. In games without Jones in the line-up, Ridley has gone 14 receptions on 19 targets.
The final part making up this long-winded bet is two running backs, who certainly love catching the ball out of the backfield. After hauling in 10 receptions on 10 targets last weekend, Washington running back J.D. McKissic should be in line for an increased workload again this time out with Starter Antonio Gibson ruled out.
Since emerging in week 4, he’s managed 3 or fewer receptions on just 2 occasions, but without Gibson there to take his snaps away, he should thrive this weekend.
Finally, rounding off the bet is the Chargers receiving happy running back Austin Ekeler. In his two games since returning from injury, he’s seen a combined 15 receptions on a whooping 25 targets. So in a matchup that could be a high scoring shootout type affair, him getting 3+ against a poor Falcons D should more or less be a gimme at this point.