NFL nut Kyle Robins (@AhhYeahKyleYeah) shares his expert opinion on the best bets ahead of Sunday's Week 13 action.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins | Sunday 6th December 2020, 18:00
We begin week 13 with a rather different approach to things after a couple of unsuccessful weeks behind us. Miami welcomes the Joe Burrow-less Bengals into town in a game they’re expected to win, as they chase down a spot in the playoffs.
Off the back of a dominant display against the Jets, who are indeed possibly the worst team in the history of the NFL, the Dolphins sit at 7-4, just one game back of the division leading Bills. They’ve been lucky in a sense that their last two games have been against the Jets and the Broncos, two of the least threatening offensive teams in the league, where the Dolphins have allowed a grand total of 23 points.
In a Bengals team with Brandon Allen under the gun, the Dolphins should have more success this weekend on the defensive side of the ball.
The Cincinnati quarterback threw for just 136 yards with 1 interception and 1 fumble against a weaker defensive unit in the New York Giants. He’ll have his work cut out to improve on that performance against a stronger Miami defence.
Now offensively, the Dolphins certainly have enough firepower to pour on the points against a poor Cincinnati defence, and with the returning Myles Gaskin to resume his role as RB1, they look to be back to near full strength. Yes, Tua is still questionable, but after his subpar performance and subsequent benching against the Denver Broncos, I myself and more confident in Fitzpatrick at the helm this weekend.
The 38-year-old veteran certainly has more chemistry with stud wide out Devante Parker, and going up against a league worst Bengals unit defending wide receivers, Parker could well have himself a day. Cincy is giving up 26.3 points per game on average, whilst this Dolphins unit ranks second in the league in terms of points allowed per game, giving up just 18.6 on average.
Look for Miami to continue their upwards trend this weekend, on both sides of the ball. Take Miami -12.5 and Under 44.5 Points at 3/1 with SkyBet.
Request-A-Bet | Sunday 6th December 2020, 18:00
I did mention this weekend I was going about things a little bit differently, so instead of covering the usual late game slate, we’re heading down the SkyBet Request-a-bet avenue instead to hunt down some value. Whilst there’s certainly no shortage of high-priced bets, like usual, I’m favouring an 11/1 shot, which I think looks a little bit overpriced.
It’s three running backs each totalling 75+ yards that constitute this bet. Dalvin Cook, Jonathan Taylor and David Montgomery, who I might say, all have favourable matchups against poor run defences.
Cook faces off against a Jaguars outfit who rank 29th against running backs, whilst Montgomery faces a favourable home matchup against a 28th ranked Lions run defence. Rounding off the trio is Taylor, who heads into Houston to take on the 31st ranked Texans run defence, who give up an average of 154 rushing yards per game.
Now yes, he is returning from the COVID exempt list, so there is some anticipation surrounding his return, but off the back of a 22 carry 90-yard performance against the Packers back in week 11. Taylor should certainly fall right back into the contention for starting reps against such a poor Houston run defence. Especially when Hines & Wilkins haven’t shown much in recent weeks, when given the opportunity to run between the tackles.
Next up is Montgomery, who’s coming off the back of an 11 carry 103-yard performance against a woeful Green Bay run defence. Averaging an impressive 9.4 yards per carry, he should certainly carry that momentum into this matchup, especially given its a home game, where they could be in a position to prioritise a run heavy offence.
Dalvin Cook went for 206 yards a few weeks back against this Detroit team, so Montgomery should certainly have plenty of carries to go over that 75-yard line we need him to,
Speaking of Cook, he makes up the final part of this bet. The Vikings back has been on a tear this season, and even more so when facing off against the lower ranked run defences in the league. He already has games of 206, 181, 163, 130 and 115 yards to date, and hasn’t had a game below 60 yards since week 1 of the season.
In this match-up, Cooks personal line is currently set at 105.5, so to say he won’t reach 75 against a Jaguars team giving up just short of 137 rushing yards per game is rather brave. Especially in such a game where the Vikings are favoured by 10 points on the spread. So, Cook should carry on cooking this weekend.