NFL nut Kyle Robins (@AhhYeahKyleYeah) shares his expert opinion on the best bets ahead of Sunday's Week 12 action.
LA Chargers @ Buffalo Bills | Sunday 29th November 2020, 18:00
Our weekend begins with what should be one of the higher scoring games of the weekend. With a current implied total of 52.5 points, the LA Chargers head to take on the Bills in Buffalo, and for note, I think we should see well over that 52.5 line as it currently stands. So, whilst I’m a big fan of the over 56.5 at 29/20 with BoyleSports, I’m heading in a different direction for this matchup.
Buffalo are coming off the back of what is undoubtedly the most heart-breaking loss of the season, but let’s face it, if they could play one ounce of defense, I wouldn’t be sat here saying this. Their inability on the defensive side of the ball and the Chargers high powered scoring offense coming to town has certainly led me down this route when hunting value in this matchup.
Justin Herbert finally got back in the win column last time out against the hopeless Jets, and after three consecutive losses, in which they put up 81 combined points, it certainly should give them some momentum heading into this match-up, even if like Buffalo, their defense is almost non-existent. They allowed no less than 28 points in a game since week 2. No wonder Justin Herbert is trying to perform miracles on a weekly basis.
Now in terms of breaking in down from a statistical point of view. The Chargers have given up 20 passing touchdowns to go along with 10 touchdowns via the running game. Whilst on the other side of things, the Bills have given up 15 through the air, as well as 15 on the ground. Funnily enough, both teams’ numbers exact to the same amount of 30 total touchdowns allowed. An average of 3 a game.
Given all of that, there should be plenty of points and scoring opportunities for both teams on a constant basis throughout this game. Maybe even hedge a little on the under on the punts market, because I can’t see too many. Where I’m hedging my money, however, will certainly be in the touchdowns market.
Chargers Tight end Hunter Henry has seen 3 consecutive weeks of 7+ targets, whilst managing 2 touchdowns through that time as well, and given the Bills are ranked 30th defending the tight end position, Henry is certainly poised for another strong performance this weekend.
Pair him with Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who’s has managed 4 rushing touchdowns in 5 home games to date, and certainly favours the goal line carries when on familiar territory. We find ourselves with an enticing double, priced up at 9/2 with SkyBet.
New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos | Sunday 29th November 2020, 21:25
Onto the first of our two late games in my bets for this weekend. We start with what should be a rather interesting and tight affair, as New Orleans heads into Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos.
Without starting quarterback Drew Brees, Taysom Hill heads into his second start for the team, in what should be a much tougher matchup than last weekend’s home win against the Falcons. On the flip side. After taking some thumpings in recent weeks, the Broncos bounced back last weekend with an impressive win against the Dolphins
Now the Saints offense was by no means perfect last weekend, and despite a late touchdown to seal things, it was on the defensive side of the ball where they really stood up, holding the high-powered Falcons to just 9 points. Add their impressive defensive display to that of the Broncos, who managed to bench rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with their dominant display last weekend, certainly inclines me to lean towards a low scoring affair.
Field goals are the area I’m looking to attack in this matchup. In Brandon McManus and Will Lutz, both teams have two of the more accurate kickers in the league this year, with McManus making 20 or 21, and Lutz converting of 19 of his 21 attempts.
Whilst I think each team has the ability to over the ball down the field, without Brees, the Saints are much more limited in the endzone than they usually would be, whereas Denver generally struggle to score touchdowns as it is, and currently have one of the league’s worst red zone percentages, converting touchdowns on just 48% of their plays inside the 20 yard line.
Look for it to be a tight affair early on, with both defences enforcing their ability to get to the quarterback. Take the Field goal scored in every quarter at 13/2 with SkyBet and believe in each team red zone defense to hole up.