NFL nut Kyle Robins (@AhhYeahKyleYeah) shares his expert opinion on the best bets ahead of Sunday's Week 10 action.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers | Sunday 15th November 2020, 18:00
A slightly different weekend in the NFL this time out, with only 6 early games on the slate, and a heavier schedule than usual later in the evening. We’ll start off by heading to Green Bay as the Packers welcome in a Jaguars outfit who’ve yet to win a game since week 1, and sit at 1-7. So there’s no real surprise Green Bay are so short at 1/9 on the money line for this game.
There are certainly a few alternate ways to attack this game. Davante Adams is on an absolute tear with 6 touchdowns in his last 3 games, and should have a field day against the 18th ranked Jaguars pass defence. However, his price is a little too short at 8/15, but certainly looks a decent shout to score a brace at 5/2, having done just that in 2 of his last 3.
Whilst I hope the fact I didn’t include that in my tips doesn’t come back to bite me, I'm sticking to my original most favoured play on this game, and it is still a rather tasty one at 9/4.
With Green Bay sitting at 7-2, and out to avenge there rather surprising defeat in their last home outing against the Vikings, I think they’ll be fired up and out to prove a point against a pretty woeful Jaguars team, so I'm taking the Packers -14.5 and Under 55.5 Points with SkyBet.
The Jags have gone 0-4 on the road, with a point differential of -37, giving up at least 30 points in all 4 of those games. In recent weeks, they’ve lost by 10 to the Chargers and 16 to the Texans, and whilst they are averaging close to 25 points a game on the road, they’ll be without their starting quarterback again this week. Jake Luton did have a decent debut last week at quarterback for the Jags against a terrible Houston defence, but heading into Lambeau to take on the Packers is just a tad more daunting.
Add in the fact that the typical Green Bay weather could perhaps play a factor in this game, with wind and rain projected, along with the possibility of some snow. The Packers should tear into an early lead and force the Jaguars to play catch up, as they usually do.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams | Sunday 15th November 2020, 21:25
We move into the late slate with our first of two games which look set to be high scoring shoot out type affairs. We start off with the Seattle Seahawks and MVP front runner, Russell Wilson heading into Los Angeles to take on the Rams in a fierce divisional matchup.
The Seahawks are averaging a league high 34 points offensively per game, whilst allowing just over 30 points per game on defence per game. If you want entertainment and touchdown, watch Seattle and you won’t be disappointed. In recent weeks they’ve lost 44-33 to the Bills, 37-34 to the Cardinals, with a 37-27 win against the 49ers sandwiched in between.
Coming off their bye week, Los Angeles will be looking to get things going offensively, after a disappointing display last time out in Miami, and I the few weeks prior to that as well. They’ve put up just 16,17 and 24 points in their last 3 games, but given the time off, the extra time should perhaps have allowed them to work a few things out offensively, and they couldn’t be asking for a better defence to face, than that they have in Seattle.
No LA certainly have the weapons on offense to keep up in this game, as well as an undoubtedly better defensive unit. Two of their most dangerous offensive threats come as the wide receiver pair of Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, and facing off against the 32nd ranked Seattle defense, both these two, as well as Josh Reynolds could be in for huge games.
To date, Kupp has two touchdowns on the year, whilst Woods has totalled 6, 4 through the air and 2 on the ground. There’s certainly a high likelihood one of, if not both these two could add to those numbers this weekend, but its Woods who im leaning towards more, given his ability to get involved the run game near the endzone.
Pair him with Seattle wide out David Moore to both score a touchdown on the day and you’re looking at some enticing odds of 7/1 wit SkyBet. LA’s top corner, and one of the best in the game could be tasked with covering DK Metcalf in this game, and that in turn, could lead to more opportunities for Seattle’s 3rd wide out.
Now he already has 4 touchdowns on the year, with 3 of those coming on the road, so Wilson certainly has faith in him near the goal line. Look for LA to try and take Metcalf and Lockett out of the equation and allow more scoring opportunities to Moore.
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals | Sunday 15th November 2020, 21:25
The second of the set to be high scoring affairs comes in Arizona, as Josh Allen and the Bills head to take on Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Like Seattle, both these teams are seemingly constantly involved in high scoring affairs on a weekly basis.
Off the back of that 44-33 defeat of Seattle, the Bills moved to 7-2, averaging 26.9 points along the way, whilst the Cardinals sit at 5-3, having scored 30+ points in each of their last 4 games. There’s no doubt both these teams can explode on offense, whilst being susceptible on defense too.
Buffalo has given up 33, 21, 26 and 42 in four of their last five games, with the Cardinals also allowing 34 points to the Dolphins and Seahawks in back to back weeks. It’s safe to say they’re both struggling defensively heading into this game.
The angle of attack for this game, like that in LA will be around touchdowns, to which there should be plenty. On the offensive side of the ball for the Cardinals it’s a pretty easy pick. Quarterback Kyler Murray has 5 rushing touchdowns through 4 home games this year, and 8 in total.
In and around the red zone, he is becoming one of the best, if not already, the best offensive threat in the league. His speed and low centre of gravity enable him to make plays to get into the endzone some quarterbacks can only dream of.
Back him to get into the end zone along with John Brown of the Bills and we’re looking at a tasty 4/1 shot with SkyBet. Now yes, statistically Brown only has 2 touchdowns on the year, but the simple fact of the matter is, outside of last week, he hasn’t been healthy since week 2. And through those first two games he did play, he accumulated 10 receptions, for 152 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Now last week he finally looked to be back to full strength, amassing 8 receptions on 11 targets for 99 yards, and whilst yes, he didn’t get into the endzone, the sheer volume he sees when on the field is certainly promising. Add to that the fact he’s facing off against the Cardinals 23rd ranked defense against wide outs, who’ve allowed 14 receiving touchdowns on the year. Brown has more than a great chance to get into the endzone.
Best Bets
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers – Green Bay Packers -14.5 and Under 55.5 Total Match Points (9/4 SkyBet)
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams – Robert Woods and David Moore both to score a Touchdown (7/1 SkyBet)
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals – Kyler Murray and John Brown both to score a Touchdown (4/1 SkyBet)
