NFL nut Kyle Robins (@AhhYeahKyleYeah) shares his expert opinion on the best bets available from Monday Night Football.
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons | Tuesday 23rd October 2018, 01:15 | Sky Sports
Hurrah, Hurrah! Lucky for us, the Atlanta Falcons host this week’s Monday Night Football, welcoming the desperate 1-5 New York Giants.
Matt Ryan and his Falcons boast one of the highest-scoring offensive units in the NFL through six weeks, averaging around 27.8 points per-game, but have put up 31,37,36 and 34 points in their four home outings.
Unfortunately for Atalanta, after season-ending injuries to Dion Jones and Ricardo Allen (two star defensive players), their defensive unit ranks the second worse in the league in, allowing an average of 32 points per-game. That’s meant an inevitable shootout every time the Falcons suit up.
All this scoring has led to Matt Ryan and his wide receiver group padding their stats that little bit higher. Ryan has already accumulated 1,956 passing yards (third most) to go along with 14 touchdowns.
Star wideout Julio Jones has also been a benefactor from Atlanta’s games this year, totalling 708 receiving yards, but somehow, someway, he’s still yet to find his way into the end zone. Whilst Jones has amassed most of the yardage for the Falcons receiver core, rookie Calvin Ridley has hauled in a team-high six touchdowns.
The problem for Atlanta however, is that Ridley and veteran Mohammed Sanu are questionable for this contest, leaving only Jones, tight end Austin Hooper and journeyman Justin Hardy as the team only reliable pass catchers.
Whilst things are pointing upwards positively for Ridley in terms of his chances playing in this game, Sanu appears to be more on the doubtful side. This, in turn, could mean yet more targets for Jones and Hooper, bearing the game turns out in another shootout, as it looks set to.
The betting angles
I will for sure be keeping an eye on Hooper’s line come Monday night. The tight end has seen 22 targets through his last two games, for 77 and 71 yards to go along with a touchdown.If his line is set around 50/60, I will for sure be taking the Over, especially given he’s accumulated those targets with Sanu and Ridley active.
Also, taking Hooper at 2/1 Anytime Touchdown with Ladbrokes is far to enticing to pass up, given his ability in the red zone.
Flipping the page to the New York Giants, it’s fair to say this season has been nothing short of disastrous. Constant pressure and questions remain on ageing quarterback Eli Manning, who, to his credit, has performed much better away from his home comforts of New York.
The 14-year veteran has thrown five touchdown passes, through three road games this year, stark comparison to the one he’s managed in three home games. He’s also produced a higher quarterback rating and greater completion percentage on the road, and given the fact he’s facing one the league’s worst defensive units, he could be in line for a bounce back game.
It’s fair to say Manning isn’t the only Giant who’s finding life a little easier away from the pressures of MetLife stadium. Temperamental wide out Odell Beckham Jr has had fairly turbulent season to date, but his best performances and numbers have come on the road.
Beckham has hauled in 17 of 24 targets for 240 yards and a touchdown his past two road games, compared to the 13 receptions on 21 targets for 104 yards through two home games. He should therefore be able to flourish against the Falcons 25th ranked pass defence.
Statistically, everything is pointing towards a positive night for this inconsistent Giants offence, and rookie sensation Saquon Barkley, this shining light on this Giants campaign, could be set for the monster of all monster games.
The running back out of Penn State has accumulated 438 rushing yards to go along with 373 receiving yards, totalling six touchdowns on the year. He certainty is the focal point of their offence, and the 4/1 offered by Betfair to score 2+ touchdowns, maybe slightly shorty than usual, but is definitely a possibility against this Falcons’ defence allowing the most fantasy points to running backs.
In terms of the game result itself. Despite the Giants struggles, I certainly think the four points they’re being offered on the point spread is too good to pass up on.
In all honesty, these Giants would and should have beaten Carolina in their last road game if it wasn’t for Graham Gano and his 63-yard game winning kick, and they performed well enough when getting the victory on the road against a solid Texans team.
Take those road performances into account and add it to the Falcons defence. In my book that only equals one outcome.