NFL nut Kyle Brown (@Kyleianbrown) runs the rule over the Thursday night's NFL clash between Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks.
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks | Friday 16th November 2018, 01:20 | Sky Sports
The Green Bay Packers (4-4-1) will travel to face the Seattle Seahawks (4-5) on Week 11’s Thursday Night Football match-up, in a game that will act as a ‘must win’ for both sides.
Seattle go in to the match as a slight favourite (-2.5 handicap), but recent history would suggest that this is a match Green Bay look forward to, having won their last three against the Seahawks.
Despite humbling Miami last week, Green Bay have been relatively average all season. They have yet to win two consecutive games, they still haven’t won on the road and have a serious issue of losing the football – fumbling nine times, tied second in the league.
Ranked eighth for total yards and seventh for passing offence: it's no secret that the Packers are reliant on their main man Aaron Rodgers to find them the wins. He’s formed a formidable partnership with Devante Adams in the wake of losing Jordy Nelson (Oakland Raiders) and Randall Cobb (injury), and he had a near perfect 17-1 TD-INT ratio this year.
Running back Aaron Jones also put in a stellar 145 yard/ two touchdown performance last week. With Ty Montgomery just traded to the Baltimore Ravens, it could start to become a regular occurrence for Jones, but it’s worth noting that last week’s yardage account for around a 1/3 of his total through eight games – so I’m not convinced yet.
That said, they are a far cry away from the run game of Seattle, who sit atop of the yards pe- game ranking with 152.2. In the defeat to the Rams, Rashaad Penny rushed for 108 yards (career high), and the backfield will be boosted with the return of Chris Carson this week following a hip injury.
Although on a two-game winless streak, Seattle played tough against the Chargers and Rams, and only lost each by one score (they were 10-point underdogs to the Rams, and joint favourites against the Chargers). They sit 11th in the NFC, but a play-off berth isn’t out of the question.
The Rams may be high flying in their division, but a win here to take them 5-5 and games to come that include San Francisco (twice) and the Arizona Cardinals would mean a wildcard spot isn’t too unrealistic.
However, Seattle are still lacking talent on either side of the line. Their defence is nowhere near as feared or respected as the ‘Legion of Boom’ was, and the offensive line can’t seem to protect the pass – allowing Russell Wilson to be sacked 29 times through nine games (on pace to beat Wilsons current record for being sacked, 45 in 2015).
The betting angle
Seattle go into this match as 2.5-point favourites with a hotly contested, even affair expected. The over/under line is set at a modest 49.5 points, and a chilly but calm weather forecast is expected – so neither the passing or run game should be heavily affected.
Normally when a game is expected to be tight, I look to either teams quarterback and tend to pick in favour of the better of the two. I’m a big fan of Russell Wilson as a QB, I’d easily have him in my top five this year.
However, I don’t think there would be any complaints with him being ranked below Rodgers – and given that it’s clutch time in the season for the Packers, I expect him to continue from last week and lead the Green Bay to a win. They’re best priced at 5/4 on Sportingbet, and a handicap of -3.5 is 9/4 on William Hill.
Randall Cobb is out again through injury, and Jimmy Graham has yet to form a continuous partnership with Rodgers in the redzone. Seeing as Devante Adams’ main competition on the wide receiver front will be Marquez Valdes-Scanting, Equanimeos St. Brown and Geronimo Allison – I’m confident Adams will see the brunt of the red zone targets. He’s even money to be an anytime scorer, and 7/2 second favourite to score the Packers’ first TD, both prices on SkyBet.
I like the under markets for a few players, notably; Aaron Jones under 74.5 rushing yards and Jimmy Graham under 46.5 receiving yards – both 5/6 on SkyBet.
Lastly, as I expect a Green Bay win, have a look at Sky’s Request-a-bet priced at 3/1: Green Bay +2.5 and Rodgers +300 yards. Even a sneaky defeat would come in as a winner providing Rodgers plays to his best.
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks – Green Bay Packers to win (5/4 Sportingbet)
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks – Davante Adams to score a touchdown at anytime (1/1 SkyBet)
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks – Green Bay Packers +2.5, Aaron Rodgers over 300 passing yards (3/1 SkyBet)