NFL nut Kyle Robins (@AhhYeahKyleYeah) shares his expert opinion on the best bets available from Monday Night Football.
Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints | Tuesday 9th October 2018, 01:15 | Sky Sports
Monday Night Football features the intriguing match-up of Alex Smith leading his Washington Redskins into New Orleans to take on the high-powered Saints offence.
Coming fresh off a bye week, the Redskins sit atop the NFC East at 2-1 and somewhat surprisingly, boast one of the better defences in the NFL, sitting behind only Jacksonville and Baltimore in Total Defence. They’re allowing a very modest 278 yards average through three games, holding the injured Aaron Rodgers to just 17 points last time out.
However, all this hype surrounding Washington’s defence could be turned on its head come Monday night, and if their offence has another outing like it did against a bad Colts team in Week 2, they could be in for a long night.
Redskins defence untested?
The Redskins have not allowed over 21 points through their first three, and coming off a week’s rest, along with the extra film study on Drew Brees, everything is looking rosy for Washington. But when you really break it down, has their defence really faced much of a test?
Yes, OK, they’ve faced Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, one being a man returning from missing the entire 2017 season, and the other playing with essentially one leg. Drew Brees and this Saints offence will be an entirely different beast, and given the return of Pro Bowl running back Mark Ingram, they could quite literally ‘explode’ at any time.
Saints unimpressive against the pass
After being one of the more dominant defensive teams in the league towards the back end of last year, like last season, the problem for the Saints is their performance on the defensive side of the ball to start the year.
Yeah they had a decent performance last week, but let’s be honest, for all the talent on that Giants offence, things just aren’t clicking in the big blue right now.
Whilst New Orleans are allowing close to 30 points per-game on average, I’m not sure if their highly-ranked run defence is a positive, or more points towards just how bad they must be defending the passing game.
They’re giving up just 79 rushing yards per-game (third best in the league), but at the same time allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw for just over 300 yards per-game. They’ve allowed 11 receiving touchdowns, to just three rushing.
Given all of this however, Washington has managed only seven touchdowns through three matches, which isn’t exactly terrible, but it’s not explosive by any means.
Alex Smith has always been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, but he’s not one to put up 30 points on a consistent basis.
The betting angles
I think it’s safe to say, Washington will be looking to utilise their running game, behind one time New Orleans back, Adrian Peterson. A man seemingly born again this off-season.
Coming off a 19 carry, 120-yard, two touchdown performance against Green Bay, Peterson will no doubt be looking to spoil the day for his one-time employer, and he may be a great shout at 6/5 with Betfair to get into the end zone.
The Redskins duel threat at running back will be key to this game I feel and managing the clock, whilst keeping Drew Brees off the field will be crucial. And whilst that might be true, it doesn’t exactly mean it’s how I think the game will turn out.
I like the Saints in this one, even more so given it’s at the dome too. The line however is quite high at six. And whilst I think New Orleans will win, given they’re 0-2 against the spread at home this year, six points (basically a touchdown) is just a bit too much for me.
So take Washington +6 at 10/11 with BetVictor.
Under 52.5 Points is the third and final angle of attack. On both occasions this year facing decent defensive teams (Browns and Giants), the Saints defensive has seemingly stepped up to, with both of those match-ups going under this line.
I just don’t think Washington can generate enough offense, but is certainly capable of keeping the score low. Take 24/25 with Marathon to go Under 52.5 Points.