NFL: Player prop markets appeal on Week 3


NFL nut Kyle Brown (@Kyleianbrown) runs the rule over best bets from Sunday's Week 3 action.

Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles | Sunday 22nd September 2019, 18:00

The Philadelphia Eagles secondary is bad. It’s the weak spot on a team that otherwise has all the pieces to make a Super Bowl run. In each of the first two weeks it has been exploited by Case Keenum and Matt Ryan and I expect that trend to continue when Matthew Stafford comes to town.

Philadelphia are missing some key defensive pieces, Malik Jackson and Timmy Jernigan are both out, while usually reliable corner back Ronald Darby has been struggling to get back to form after a knee injury.

Over the first two games, the Eagles defence has allowed 765 total yards and three touchdowns per-game – all six of those coming in the passing game. They’re doing an adequate job of stopping the run, which is what Detroit are normally best at, but if Matt Patricia and co. have any sense then they’ll change their approach this week and try and win through the air.

If (when) they do, Kenny Golladay will be the biggest beneficiary. He’s been Stafford’s favourite receiver through two weeks of play (19 targets) and he made light work of Casey Haward of the Chargers last week, one of the better corners he’ll face all season.

You can get Golladay anytime at a very nice looking 15/8 on Betfred (as short as 6/5 elsewhere) and if you fancy him to get two of the usual three touchdowns that the Eagles give up then he’s an eye opening 10/1 on SkyBet.

Elsewhere on the Lions offense, you can get Danny Amendola to surpass 33.5 yards at 17/20 on Unibet. A big Week 1 – aided by overtime – was followed by a donut performance last week (0 yards) but he’ll still be good value to meet somewhere in the middle this week given the matchup and the attention that Golladay will demand.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49ers | Sunday 22nd September 2019, 21:25

Mason Rudolph will be making his first NFL start this week following a season ending elbow injury to Ben Roethlisberger. Being thrown in at the deep end last week, he started well, completing 63% of passes, throwing two touchdowns and one interception (that was the fault of the receiver, not the thrower).

Both those touchdowns were thrown to tight end Vance McDonald, and he stayed on the field for 91% of snaps, making him an almost ever-present whenever Steelers approached the end zone.

Rookie QB’s value consistency. They will make mistakes and so need to rely on the experienced pass catchers to be full switched on. McDonald is exactly what Rudolph needs going into this matchup against a top end SF defence. He’s big and reliable through the middle, and already shown he has a rapport with the third round rookie.

With JuJu Smith-Schuster understandably demanding the most attention on the outside, expect McDonald to get a few more looks than he normally would, given the situation.

Rudolph’s passing numbers will also be helped by having one of the best offensive lines in front of him. They’ll have their hands full with a competent San Francisco front four, but if they give Rudolph the extra second that a rookie will need, I have no doubts he’s going to connect on a few big plays.

You can get Vance McDonald to add to his TD total with Rudolph best priced at 10/3 on Betfair, and 16/1 if you’re brave enough to think he’ll be the first to put points on the board.

If receiving yardage is your bet of choice, I’d highly recommend taking the over (42.5), available on Paddy Power.

Best Bets

Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles – Kenny Golladay to score a touchdown anytime (15/8 Betfred)

Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles – Kenny Golladay to score 2 or more touchdowns (10/1 SkyBet)

Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles – Danny Amendola Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (17/20 Unibet)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49ers – Vance McDonald to score a touchdown at anytime (10/3 Betfair)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49ers – Vance McDonald Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (5/6 Paddy Power)

About Author

As a journalism student consumed by sports on a daily basis, being paid to write about them would be the dream upon graduating (assuming I don’t get scouted last minute to play for Barcelona). I’m Scottish born and proudly support the national team, as well as Chelsea and the Chicago Bears. My family are all massive Rangers fans - regardless of what division they wake up in. I’ve started using statistics and data to make selections, rather than my gut. American Football is what I specialise in, and thankfully for me, it is a massively data-driven sport. Everything from pass completion to weather forecasts are taken into account. My love for numbers comes from my interest in poker. I play regularly online and at casinos, and every decision made requires thought into percentages and odds. Although there is an element of luck, it showed me that grasping an understanding of mathematics could prove to be very profitable.

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