NFL expert Tom Selwyn (@Tom_Selwyn) shares his expert opinion on the best bet available from Monday Night Football.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens | Tuesday 28th November 2017, 01:30 | Sky Sports
If you like bad offenses then this will be the Monday night match-up for you!
Baltimore and Houston, (now that Deshaun Watson is on injured reserve) feature two of the poorest offenses in the league so the total points line reflects this, sitting between 38 and 40. If anything that could be seen as too low given that the Ravens defence has already had three shutouts – an extraordinary feat – this season.
Barring some special teams or defensive TDs, I don’t think we’ll see close to 40 points so I have to back the Under 39.5 Points at 9/10 (188BET).
Given that Baltimore’s defence is tied for the lead in takeaways this season, I gave serious consideration to backing the Tom Savage led Texans to have the most turnovers, but the Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been just as turnover prone, with 11 INTs so far this season.
Flacco also has only nine TDs on the season (less than one a game!) and his season high yards is just 261. Indeed, the whole Ravens offense has been anaemic, averaging just 279.8 yards per-game (31st in the league) and despite four TDs and 23 turnovers from their defence, just 21.3 points per-game.
I certainly wouldn’t be writing about an low scoring game if the Texans rookie QB Deshaun Watson wasn’t injured, but his backup, Tom Savage, has not been able to move the ball in the same way. Savage has averaged just 223.3 yards per-game and 17.3 points per-game in the three games he’s played since Watson’s injury.
With a very good Baltimore defence and a serviceable Houston defence (although they sure miss J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus) going against these offenses, the obvious choice of a low scoring game is probably the right one.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens – Under 39.5 Points (9/10 188BET)