NFL: Lockett to take flight against ailing Falcons on Week 8


NFL nut Kyle Brown (@Kyleianbrown) runs the rule over best bets from Sunday's Week 8 action.

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons | Sunday 27th October 2019, 18:00

Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn could well be coaching his last ever match in front of the Falcons faithful as his 1-6 side sit afoot of the NFC South division.

Defence has long been Atlanta’s biggest issue but going into this Week 8 match against MVP candidate Russell Wilson, they may be without their own starting QB, Matt Ryan, as he looks to be a game time decision as a result of an ankle injury. Ryan or no Ryan, the Falcons will struggle.

If he doesn’t play, 38-year old Matt Schaub will take the reins, which will seriously hinder every Falcons offensive playmakers yardage and scoring opportunities.

Right now, you can grab the Seahawks to win this match up and cover a 6.5 handicap at 10/11 on BetVictor. At the time of writing, Ryan appears to be a game-time decision, but if he were to be ruled out that handicap number will drop into the double digits.

The Falcons defensive front has the league lowest sack rate at just 2.1%, and the fifth lowest QB hit rate at 11.1%. Not good numbers when you’re coming up against one of the best QB’s in the league right now
In the secondary, they are just as dismal. Their secondary as allowed the fourth most receptions (98), second most yards (1,371) and the fifth most TD’s against opposing wideouts.

As you can imagine, that leads the value into the anytime scoring markets for the Seahawks.

Chris Carson is the shortest odds of any player to score this week, 8/13 best priced on Betfair and 1/2 or worse elsewhere. He will certainly benefit from a high-scoring, fast-paced match-up but the price just isn’t appealing.

In the passing game, you can grab Tyler Lockett at 10/11 on Betfair, and DK Metcalf at 6/4 on Betfair. I like both players to get on the scoresheet this week, and the 6/4 Metcalf price is extremely tempting. That said, Lockett is the clear and reliable #1 receiver, and in first and goal situations, Wilson will always look to his favourite to make a play.

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos | Sunday 27th October 2019, 18:00

My player prop bet of the week will be playing in front of his home crowd in Denver this week as his 2-5 Broncos host the 4-2 Colts.

Courtland Sutton has established himself as the focal point of this Broncos offence that is still trying to garner traction seven weeks into the season.

Sutton has been one of the few bright spots on the Broncos offence this year. He has three TD’s in seven matches, with 564 yards on 36 receptions.  Through sevem matches this year, he has caught passes from Joe Flacco 7, 4, 5, 6, 4, 4, 6 times in each match-up. Sky have his prop line listed at 4.5, with 8/11 odds for him to go over, which is what I’d recommend.

The Colts have a banged up secondary, which in their last 4 games has allowed 4 100+ yard games to opposition receivers.

Sutton is Flacco’s number 1 target with 54 targets, but his second favourite, Emmanuel Sanders (44 targets) was traded out west to the SF 49ers. That leaves a lot of extra passing opportunities on the field for the Broncos pass catches, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sutton to nab an extra ball or two this week.

Best Bets

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons – Seattle Seahawks -6.5 handicap (10/11 BetVictor)

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons – Tyler Lockett to score a touchdown at anytime 10/11 (Betfair)

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos – Courtland Sutton Over 4.5 Receptions (8/11 Sky Bet)

About Author

As a journalism student consumed by sports on a daily basis, being paid to write about them would be the dream upon graduating (assuming I don’t get scouted last minute to play for Barcelona). I’m Scottish born and proudly support the national team, as well as Chelsea and the Chicago Bears. My family are all massive Rangers fans - regardless of what division they wake up in. I’ve started using statistics and data to make selections, rather than my gut. American Football is what I specialise in, and thankfully for me, it is a massively data-driven sport. Everything from pass completion to weather forecasts are taken into account. My love for numbers comes from my interest in poker. I play regularly online and at casinos, and every decision made requires thought into percentages and odds. Although there is an element of luck, it showed me that grasping an understanding of mathematics could prove to be very profitable.

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