NFL expert Tom Selwyn (@Tom_Selwyn) shares his expert opinion on the best bets available from Thursday night's action in Tennessee.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans | Friday 7th November 2018, 01:20 | Sky Sports
Before I get to this week’s game, a quick word on the Dallas Cowboy’s defensive performance last week; simply superb. To bottle up the New Orleans Saints offensive as they did was an incredible feat, and while they won’t be getting a bye, with the way their defence is playing – the front seven especially – Dallas has to be considered a contender in the NFC.
This week we don’t get quite the marquee match-up, but it certainly should be another defensive struggle; the last two games involving Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans totalled just 40 points and I’m not convinced the offenses are any better.
Cody Kessler is currently starting at QB for a pitiful Jaguars offense that put up only six points last week and I’m still not convinced that Titans QB Marcus Mariota has a good “feel” for playing the position – his pocket movement gets him into trouble far too often.
I think he could struggle against a rejuvenated Jacksonville defence that has been playing out of their minds the last few weeks. They held a surging Colts offense to a big fat zero and held the Steelers at bay for over three quarters three weeks ago. They did give up a lot of yards rushing to Buffalo’s Josh Allen though and I’d be very interested in the line that goes up for Mariota’s rushing yards.
The betting angles
Unfortunately, I can’t find anywhere that has the line up as I write this!
Instead, I’m going to back the Jaguars to hold Tennessee’s offense to go Under 21.5 points. The Titans average just 18.4 yards a game and have played teams with a lot worse defences than the Jaguars.
Their running game isn’t great and if Jalen Ramsey can lock down Corey Davis as he did with T.Y. Hilton last week, then I think Tennessee struggles. Davis has 744 receiving yards this year, the next closest Titans player has 318.
I do like the odds available for Tennessee’s TE Jonnu Smith to find the end zone. With Delanie Walker out, he’s starting at the position and while not piling up the yardage, has scored three touchdowns in his last five games. This, along with Jacksonville tied for third in terms of giving up TDs to TEs (7), says that the 6/1 (Unibet) available for him is far too long.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans – Tennessee Titans to score Under 21.5 Points (11/13 Sportingbet)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans – Jonnu Smith to score a touchdown at anytime (6/1 Unibet)